[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130126
SWODY1
SPC AC 130124

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
SLN 25 SSW CNK 25 SSW FNB 15 SSE STJ 15 ESE MKC 30 ESE CNU 30 SW TUL
35 NNE OKC 15 NNW END 40 ESE P28 HUT 25 WSW SLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE
MRF 40 SE LBB 35 SW P28 30 SSE RSL 45 ENE HLC 25 S HSI 20 SSE LNK 40
SSW FOD 25 NNE MKT 55 NNE EAU 30 ENE AUW 30 W MKE 25 WSW BEH 40 W
FWA 20 N IND 50 SSE MTO 35 SSE MVN 45 S PAH 30 SW MKL 50 N GLH 40
WNW HOT 20 NNW DAL 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 ENE LBB
35 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 50 SW COS 25 E MTJ 50 SW CAG 30 SW RWL 45 SSE
DGW 45 NNW PHP 45 WNW JMS 45 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 25 NW HLG 30
W EKN 15 W DAN 10 SW SOP 15 ENE CRE ...CONT... 25 S CRP LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN OK THROUGH ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN IA
SWWD THROUGH NERN KS TO A SURFACE LOW IN N CNTRL KS. DRYLINE EXTENDS
SWWD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW THROUGH W CNTRL KS...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND INTO W TX. ANOTHER LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN AR
NWWD THROUGH NWRN MO WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THE ATMOSPHERE E OF THE DRYLINE AND S OF THE KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG FROM W TX
THROUGH OK AND ERN KS. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE WITH MCS DROPPING
SEWD THROUGH NERN KS/NW MO AND WITH CLUSTER OVER W TX JUST NW OF
ABILENE. IN BETWEEN...ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF DRYLINE...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY OVER SERN KS.

THE LINEAR MCS ACROSS NERN KS/NW MO HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD SUPPORTED BY MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW ALONG
INTENSIFYING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE WITH ISOLATED STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN KS AND ANY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA DURING THE EVENING.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET EXISTS IN THIS AREA.

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD
THROUGH W TX. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OK. THE EVENING RAOB
DATA FROM NORMAN DID SHOW PRESENCE OF A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 2 KM...AND LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
STRONGER CAP. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
MOVING INTO W TX. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS ACROSS OK...OR NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG
THE OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN NW TX. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM ERN KS...WRN
MO WITH SOME BACKBUILDING LIKELY ALONG THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. ERN
EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN MO IS CONDITIONAL UPON RECOVERY OF
THE AIR THAT HAS STABILIZED IN WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT SOME EWD
RECOVERY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...SC AND ERN GA...

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND SW OF BACK DOOR FRONT
ACROSS SC INTO PARTS OF GA. COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 06/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.