[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121948
SWODY1
SPC AC 121945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
OLU 40 NE OMA 35 SW DSM 40 SW IRK 10 ESE SZL 35 E TUL 40 ENE ABI 65
NNW ABI 25 NW LTS P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S
MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE
30 NW MKT 30 W EAU 15 SSE CWA MKE 10 SE SBN 30 N DAY 10 NNW HTS 20
WNW HKY 15 SSW AND 35 WNW RMG 30 WNW MSL 20 NW MEM 45 N LIT FSM 10
ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS
30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW
RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA ...CONT... 60
NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN 20 NNE DVL RRT ...CONT... 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW 25
NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM ...CONT... 25 S CRP LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NE AND SWRN IA SWD
THRU CENTRAL/ERN KS...NWRN MO...NRN AND CENTRAL OK INTO NWRN TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN
ND SWD THROUGH CO.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD EXTENDING FROM ERN ND SWD/SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
13/06Z.  SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL KS BETWEEN HLC AND RSL...WITH A MESOLOW EVIDENT AROUND LNK
ASSOCIATED WITH 4.9 MB/3 HOURS PRESSURE FALL.  ALSO...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW EXTENDS E-W FROM CENTRAL AND WRN KY WSWWD ACROSS NRN AR.

...KS/NE INTO OK/TX AND PARTS OF MO...
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AT
THIS TIME.  PRESSURE FALLS ARE MORE CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA BOUNDED
BY CNK-OMA-OFK-GRI-CNK AND SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKING ACROSS ERN KS
DEVELOPING INFLOW TOWARDS THE LOW NW OF RSL.  AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST
AND BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPR 60S TO LOW
70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING RAISING SBCAPE TO BETWEEN 4500-5500 J/KG
/MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG/.  18Z RAOB DATA SHOWS CAPE JUST UNDER 4500
J/KG AT TOP WITH A MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 9C/KM.  WHILE SHEAR HAS
YET TO RESPOND TO APPROACHING TROUGH...RUC MODEL FORECASTS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT BY 13/00Z FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
NEAR THE SW-NE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA BY THAT TIME. 
ALSO...CONSIDERING THE LARGE CAPE/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.

DRYLINE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BETWEEN HLC/RSL
THROUGH GAG AND LBB INTO MAF.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES UVVS BY EVENING.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...OH/TN VALLEY INTO SC...

ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG/JUST S OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AIR MASS IS VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...DEW
POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S GIVING MLCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500
J/KG.  GIVEN THE WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ADJUSTED SLGT RISK
SWD TO THE TN SRN BORDER WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT THAT
HAS MADE IT SWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NWRN SC.  ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.