[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130621
SWODY1
SPC AC 130619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
SLN 35 ENE OTM 25 NNE UIN 40 E COU 15 W PNC 20 ENE P28 15 SW SLN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
ERI PIT 15 SW UNI 25 NE EVV 30 S SGF 10 SW OKC 15 NE GAG 35 SW RSL
30 N CNK 55 WSW FOD 35 N RST 15 SSW IWD 125 NNE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSE MRF 30 NE HLC
BUB 30 NNE ANW 40 NNE CDR 50 SSE 81V 20 WNW WRL 20 ENE BTM 40 S FCA
45 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 30 ENE EFK 15 WNW ILG 15 WSW RIC 20
S OAJ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN KS THROUGH NRN
MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...

ONGOING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL COMPLICATE
SURFACE PATTERN AND ENHANCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FORECAST. A
RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE IA THROUGH
ERN MO AND SWWD INTO SRN KS. THE WRN PART OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IS STILL MOVING SWD...BUT MAY STALL ACROSS SRN KS OR NRN OK THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD WWD SUPPORTED BY SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS. RECOVERY NWD INTO KS
AND MO MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HOW MUCH NWD RECOVERY
OCCURS WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON HOW FAR SOUTH ONGOING CONVECTION
PROGRESSES.

PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED FARTHER NORTH INTO
KS/MO AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DISSIPATES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR
SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO...WITH MLCAPE FROM
2500 TO 3500 J/KG POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS
OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO MO AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND WEAKEN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODERATE MID LEVEL
FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DEEP
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH SRN KS...MO AND
PARTS OF OK DURING THE EVENING...POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS AS DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES STORMS RELATIVE
INFLOW.


...OH VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV CURRENTLY OVER IA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. THE DOWNSTREAM
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000
TO 2500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF IND...OH AND MI. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
DURING THE MORNING ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES
WITH BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF LOWER MI WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

..DIAL.. 06/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.