[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121548
SWODY1
SPC AC 121546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
OLU 10 ESE OMA 20 NW LWD 40 SW IRK 20 ENE SZL 10 N JLN 40 ENE ABI 30
NNW ABI 75 NW ABI P28 HLC EAR 25 ENE OLU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S
MRF 25 E MAF 40 WSW CSM 25 W P28 30 W HLC MCK 25 ESE MHN 15 SE MHE
30 NW MKT 35 WSW DLH RHI MKE 10 SE SBN 30 NE DAY 15 S CMH UNI 30 SE
5I3 40 NNE TYS 40 SE BWG 30 SW CGI HRO FSM 10 ENE DUA FTW 20 SSE
DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 30
SW JAX 35 NNW AYS 15 SW AHN 10 WSW AND 30 N CAE 15 SW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 30 WNW ISN
20 NNE DVL RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ERI 30 SE MGW
25 NNE CLT 30 NNE FLO 20 S ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW MRF 30 NNW CDS
30 N GAG GCK 40 N LAA 15 NE MTJ 20 W PUC 10 SE SLC 25 NNW EVW 30 NNW
RWL 30 WNW DGW 45 N CPR 40 W 3HT 55 NNE MSO 60 NW FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MIDWEST THRU OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GA AND SC...

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER
SRN MANITOBA THRU WRN MN INTO ERN NEB THEN WWD INTO CENTRAL CO.
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WHERE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS DRY
LINE. DRY LINE THEN TRAILS SSWWD ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN
TX.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ESEWD FROM NRN IA ACROSS
OH VALLEY AND THEN SEWD AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALONG SC/NC
BORDER.

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM HAVE SPREAD ACROSS PLAINS
AND COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG FLUX OF GULF MOISTURE HAVE PUT
IN PLACE AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF PLAINS TO E
OF DRY LINE AND SE OF COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONALLY A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COVERS AREA ALONG AND S
OF FRONTAL BAND ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO SERN STATES.

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
EXAMINING 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL RUNS THE AIR MASS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS E AND SE OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. 
MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE CAP WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN
TX NWD THRU CENTRAL PLAINS.

HAIL MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
SUPERCELL OVER THE MDT RISK AREA. TORNADIC POTENTIAL ATTM SEEMS
HIGHEST  IN THE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND WEAKEST CAP OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS E OF DRY LN AND NEAR COLD FRONT.  GIVEN
THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE VIOLENT TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER DOWN DRYLINE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WINDS.  HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SRN PORTION OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN NM ATTM...SHEAR
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED
RELATIVELY HIGH BASES.

...MID WEST INCLUDING OH VALLEY...
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF  THIS AREA.  ONGOING ACTIVITY AND WEAKER LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONCENTRATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. 
HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE STORMS CAN FOCUS EITHER ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR VICINITY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE.

...CAROLINAS...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO SC WILL BE NRN LIMIT OF
ANY THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.  S OF FRONT SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE 
ALONG  BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND COLD FRONTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000
J/KG.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.