[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 112002
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
LSE 25 SSE LNR 35 NW MLI 40 N OTM 35 S FOD 20 ENE OTG 35 NNE RWF 25
ESE STC 25 W EAU 25 ESE LSE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
EWN 25 ESE DAN 30 SW PSK 25 SSE JKL 20 WNW SDF STL 45 NNW SGF 25 S
TUL 10 W ABI 35 ENE BGS 15 SSW CDS 30 NW END 35 N MHK 10 WNW SUX 10
SSW BIS 50 N MOT 55 WNW RRT 15 SW CWA MKE 15 SSW CGX 10 W LAF 35 W
MIE 20 S CMH 20 SSW HLG 20 SW MRB 10 WNW DCA 15 SSE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 35 SE AZO 20
WNW CAK 30 WNW DOV 20 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 W CSM 10
NNW HUT 15 ENE GRI 50 NE BUB 40 W 9V9 50 SSE GCC 55 NW RWL 35 NNW
PUC 20 SW U24 30 SSW ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW OWY 60 SW 27U 50 S S06 15
WNW GEG 45 NW 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SERN MN
INTO NERN IA AND SWRN WI....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUND THE MDT RISK FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
VA/NC....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN ALBERTA WITH AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THROUGH WRN ND AND CENTRAL
NE...THEN WWD OVER N CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL KS TO ANOTHER LOW OVER E
CENTRAL CO.  ALSO...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ND ESEWD
ACROSS NERN IA AND NERN IL...THROUGH A LOW OVER E CENTRAL OH...SEWD
THROUGH ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL VA SEWD THROUGH THE NC OUTER BANKS.
 ALSO...A SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL KS SSWWD
ACROSS NWRN OK THEN SWD ALONG THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E
CENTRAL MT SEWD OVER SERN SD MOVING NEWD AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD
INTO SWRN MN.  STRONG FORCING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT JUST
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA

...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL BE
MAKING A STRONG PUSH EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND IA THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  LATEST MESOSCALE DATA SHOWS THAT MLCAPE VALUES HERE ARE
2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE WELL...AND
WOULD FIGURE THAT 0-1KM HELICITY AND STREAM WISE VORTICITY WOULD BE
ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FRONT.  THUS...THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE DRYLINE.  SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS HIGH WITH
VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG...BUT ALSO HAS THE PRESENCE OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CAPPING.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MOSTLY ACROSS ERN
NE...NERN KS INTO IA COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...UPPER OHIO VALLEY SEWD INTO THE SRN DELMARVA REGION...

CURRENT LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ESEWD ALONG
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN OH INTO NERN NC.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...AND NOTICED
A REAR INFLOW JET OF 48 KT OVER SWRN OH ACCORDING TO KILN DOPPLER
RADAR. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE AROUND/JUST ABOVE 1500 J/KG.  THUS...THERE CONTINUE TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT THAT A BOW ECHO COULD
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES SEWD ACROSS WV/VA INTO
NC THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.