[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120125
SWODY1
SPC AC 120123

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE
EWN 10 WNW FAY SOP 35 N SOP 40 NNE RWI 20 NE ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W
RRT 25 N AXN 20 NW AXN 40 SSW FAR 75 NW DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
UIN 35 E CNU 35 W BWD 40 WNW SJT 10 W BGS 30 SSE SLN 20 SE FOD 20 S
EAU 40 WSW CWA 30 ENE CGX 30 ESE MIE 45 NW LUK 30 ESE BMG 25 NNW DEC
10 ENE UIN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW CMX AZO 10 SSW
UNI 10 ENE SHD 10 NE WAL ...CONT... 80 S MRF 35 WNW CDS 35 NNW MHK
30 N OMA 15 E BKX 35 W ABR 40 W BIS 50 NNE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ND INTO NW MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NC...

...MID THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...

STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINEAR MCS FROM MN SWWD THROUGH IA AND NW
MO. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING S OF AN E-W
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IND NWWD THROUGH NRN IL
AND NERN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE SQUALL LINE. MOIST UNSTABLE
STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING
SYSTEM WELL INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IA AND INTO NRN
IL AND SRN WI. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE THAT INTERSECT
THE WARM FRONT AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY.

OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
 

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE ACROSS W TX. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS
ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF OK INTO
KS. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOWED A WEAK CAP OVER NERN KS AND LINE OVER
NW MO MAY BACKBUILD INTO NERN KS. HOWEVER...OK CONVECTION SEEMS TO
BE STRUGGLING WITH STRONGER CAP. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
AREA DURING THE EVENING.


...NC...

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH NC
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ERN NC REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE
ACTIVITY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS LINES...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.


...ERN ND AND NWRN MN...

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
VORT MAX MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ERN ND INTO
NW MN.

..DIAL.. 06/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.