[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111633
SWODY1
SPC AC 111631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
LSE 25 SSE LNR 35 NW MLI 40 N OTM 35 S FOD 20 ENE OTG 35 NNE RWF 25
ESE STC 25 W EAU 25 ESE LSE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
EWN 50 NNW RWI 15 WSW PSK 25 SSE JKL 30 SSW SDF 10 SW MDH 20 WSW CGI
15 SW SGF 25 S TUL 10 W ABI 35 ENE BGS 15 SSW CDS 30 NW END 35 N MHK
10 WNW SUX 10 SSW BIS 50 N MOT 55 WNW RRT 15 SW CWA MKE 15 SSW CGX
10 W LAF 35 W MIE 20 S CMH 20 SSW HLG 20 SW MRB 10 WNW DCA 15 SSE
WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E MQT 35 SE AZO 20
WNW CAK 30 WNW DOV 20 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 30 W CSM 10
NNW HUT 15 ENE GRI 50 NE BUB 40 W 9V9 50 SSE GCC 55 NW RWL 35 NNW
PUC 20 SW U24 30 SSW ELY 40 S BAM 40 WSW OWY 60 SW 27U 50 S S06 15
WNW GEG 45 NW 63S.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF SRN MN/NRN IA AND
SWRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S.  ESEWD TO
MID  ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW ROTATING NEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS  WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. DOWNSTREAM  RIDGING
INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AS MID LEVEL WIND/VORT MAX MOVES FROM OH VALLEY
ESEWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SWD THRU DELMARVA THEN
EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS OH VALLEY WHERE IT IS RETURNING NWD AS A WARM
FRONT THRU NRN IA.  PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NWRN ND MOVING NEWD WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE A SECONDARY LOW LOCATED
AT TRIPLE POINT OF WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT THEN TRAILS SSWWD THRU
CENTRAL KS INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AVAILABLE TO FUEL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD INTO SRN MN/WI THIS AFTERNOON...VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP TO S OF FRONT WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS
OF 4000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF NWD MOVING WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS HELICITIES OF 150-200 M2/S2 
DEVELOP.  BY MID AFTERNOON THE CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY AS MID
LEVEL COOLING AND UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING S/WV
TROUGH TO ALLOW RAPID INITIATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW EWD VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.  THIS WILL BE AREA
OF MOST LIKELY THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS
IT CONTINUES E/ENEWD VICINITY AND N OF WARM FRONT.

...OH VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...REF 1188...

30-35 KT OF MID LEVEL VLYS EXTENDING FROM LOWER OH VALLEY EWD TO MID
ATLANTIC  STATES COUPLED WITH THE MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AND WEAK CIN...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CLUSTERS AND SHORT
LINES/BOWS BY MID AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN THE LOW LCL,S FOR
A THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES.

...NRN PLAINS...
AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS ND AND SERN SD AHEAD OF
SURFACE/UPPER LOW.  WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AND 35-45 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW POSE A THREAT OF TORNADOES AS WELL.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

THE THREAT OF STORMS BREAKING THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL EXIST
FROM MID AFTERNOON TIL EARLY EVENING ACROSS KS/WRN OK AND NWRN TX. 
THREAT WILL DIMINISH SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS E OF DRY LINE.  SUPERCELLS AS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH A
TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.