[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102015
SWODY1
SPC AC 102013

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
HLC 40 ENE GLD 25 S IML 30 SE CDR 55 NE CDR 25 SSE PHP 45 W 9V9 40
SSW 9V9 15 ESE EAR 40 NE HLC 15 W HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CDS 30 WSW CDS 25 ENE AMA 30 NNE EHA 35 NE AKO 55 NNE DGW 70 E BIL
70 WNW MLS 40 SSW OLF 15 ENE SDY 30 SSW P24 40 ENE MBG 35 SSW MHE 45
ESE HSI 45 SW END 15 SSW LTS 20 SSE CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
WAL 30 NNE RIC 30 SSE CHO 25 SSE ROA 15 E PSK 15 WSW SSU 15 SSW EKN
45 WNW MRB 15 S CXY 25 SSE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
SLO 15 NNW ALN 50 NNE COU 15 NNE IRK 35 WNW BRL 15 NNW PIA 20 S LAF
10 SSE LUK 40 ENE LEX 30 SE LEX 55 SW LEX 40 WSW SDF 25 E SLO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD
20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15
SE BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO
20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE
BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NEB...CNTRL
NEB...SRN SD AND NW KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...GREAT PLAINS...

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW IN NE CO WITH A WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS NRN NEB EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN IA. AN INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
SPREADING NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NM AND SE CO WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN KS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
SCATTERED STORM INITIATION OCCURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FAVOR STORM INITIATION BY 22Z EAST OF THE
DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO SWRN NEB. THE GREATEST
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WCNTRL NEB...NW KS AND SRN SD
WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NW KS AND CNTRL NEB WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM WILL PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD STRONG ASCENT SPREADING OUT INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. A LARGE MCS SHOULD DEVELOP...TRACKING NEWD ACROSS ERN
NEB...ERN SD REACHING MN AND IA LATE TONIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY.

...OH VALLEY...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NRN IL ACROSS NRN
IND. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS MO AND
AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EWD INTO IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST CONSIDERING
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WV EXTENDING
ESEWD INTO ERN VA WHERE SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY NOTABLY
ACROSS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
1500 T0 2500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS. FLOW IS PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...FROM THE W AND NW AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL FAVOR SEWD MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..BROYLES.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.