[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101638
SWODY1
SPC AC 101636

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
BUB 40 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 40 S Y22 9V9
50 NE BUB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ORF 45 WSW RIC 30 ENE SSU 15 W MGW 15 NNE LBE 25 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW EHA 20 NNW BFF 10 SSW GCC 35 E
BIL 60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA
20 E HUT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
JLN 10 SW MKC 10 NNW LWD MLI 10 NE MMO 40 SSE SBN 10 W MIE BMG 15
WSW SLO 30 SSE TBN 20 NNW HRO 20 S JLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK
30 WSW PVW 35 ENE LIC 20 W AKO 20 NNE DEN 10 N GUC 20 S CNY 45 NNE
BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45
NNW 4OM ...CONT... 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD 20 NW EAU 15 NNE VOK 35 WNW
MKG 25 SSE MTC 30 NNW JHW 35 SW ALB 15 SE BOS.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SD...NEB...AND
NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER ID MOVING ENEWD WITH
SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE SRN
AND SERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN
WY IS NOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE OVR SRN UT/NRN AZ WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS OVER WY WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS ERN CO AND ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER.  THE WY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND WRN ND
TONIGHT.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE
OVER NERN CO.  THE ASSOCIATED DRY LINE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...REACHING SWRN SD/WRN NEB/WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z
AND WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
SWD INTO NEB/KS/OK AND WILL INHIBIT HEATING ACROSS THESE REGIONS. 
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE DRY LINE
WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MINIMAL WHICH WILL PROMOTE MORE RAPID
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND PRESENCE OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG
THE DRY LINE FROM SERN MT/NERN WY/WRN SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AS
DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN WY VORTICITY MAX COUPLES WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPWARD MOTION TO RELEASE
INSTABILITY.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH SUPERCELL FORMATION
LIKELY.  VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD INTO WRN SD
AND WRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY
GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO A BAND OR BROKEN LINE DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD AND
NEB DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE IS MORE
UNCERTAIN ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE. THE
ETA APPEARS TOO DRY IN THE POTENTIAL CLOUD LAYER FOR THE BMJ
CONVECTIVE SCHEME TO ACTIVATE DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE THE ETAKF
DEVELOPS CELLS OVER KS SWD INTO WRN TX.  EXPECTATIONS OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL WRF MODEL OUTPUT. 
40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INDICATING THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY BECOME SEVERE.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
BY 04-6Z.

...LOWER MO/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO LIFT NNEWD FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY.  AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS VERY
MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS
SOUTH OF PRECIPITATION BAND FROM IA INTO NRN IL INDICATE REGION
WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW IS MODERATELY STRONG WITH VAD/PROFILERS SHOWING 30-40 KT
FLOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE SEVERE
THREAT.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA.  BREAKS IN CLOUDS
FROM SRN PA TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL ALLOW LOCAL AREAS OF
STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXPECTED.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.