[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110111
SWODY1
SPC AC 110109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
BMI BRL 25 ENE CID 35 W JVL 25 NNW CGX 40 S SBN 25 NW MIE 30 E IND
15 E BMG 30 NE MTO 30 WSW BMI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
ABR 45 N RWF 25 N FOD 10 SSW FNB 20 WNW EMP 10 W HUT 45 WSW RSL 30
SSE MHN 65 S Y22 50 WNW SHR 75 WNW MLS 15 N SDY 55 NNE ABR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SW HIB 30
ESE EAU 20 WNW GRR 25 NW LBE JFK ...CONT... 85 SSE MRF 40 ENE LBB
GCK 15 NNW IML 35 SE MTJ 15 SW 4HV 55 NE ENV 20 SSE HLN 55 NE FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN IL THROUGH
NRN IND...

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR FROM EXTREME NRN KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND CNTRL SD.
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS FROM NRN KS NWD THROUGH NEB REMAIN DISCRETE...AND
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES...
WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY
BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE AS ONE OR MORE MCSS
AS IT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
MAY PERSIST LATE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF ERN
NEB...WRN IA AND SERN SD. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
SHOULD COMMENCE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL THROUGH NRN IND...

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN IND WWD THROUGH NRN IL AND CNTRL IA.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH IL AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS FEATURE AND IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT FROM NRN IL THROUGH
NRN IND. THE 00Z RAOB FROM CNTRL IL SHOWED SURFACE-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 BASED ON OBSERVED STORM
MOTIONS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS MOVE NEWD AND ENCOUNTER
STRONG SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.


...SRN PLAINS...

BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS REMAIN ACTIVE WITHIN IN ZONE OF MIXING AND
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM SW KS SWWD
THROUGH W TX. HOWEVER...THE 00Z NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWS THE EML HAS
SPREAD EWD OVER TOP OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AN EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE
ISOLATED STORM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SW TX.
OVERALL THREAT IN THIS AREA IS CONDITIONAL UPON INITIATING A STORM.
GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THREAT WILL
BECOME EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE CAP
STRENGTHENS.

..DIAL.. 06/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.