[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101305
SWODY1
SPC AC 101303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
BUB 40 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 40 S Y22 9V9
50 NE BUB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ORF 35 WNW HTS 15 NNW BRL 30 ENE CID 30 SW LNR 20 NW SBN 25 NW LBE
25 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW 20 ESE EHA 15 NNW BFF 55 SW MLS
60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E
HUT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 60 ESE BRD
10 SW EAU 30 ESE VOK 45 WNW MKG 25 S MTC 20 ENE ERI 30 NE MSV 15 SE
BOS ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 30 WNW EHA 40 NNE LHX
30 SSW DEN 35 W ASE 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 15 S ELY 50 SE
BAM 80 NW OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL
SD...WRN AND CENTRAL NEB...AND NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY
ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS
PERIOD WHILE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.  ALONG WITH
THIS TROUGH...INCREASINGLY-STRONG SWLY / SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD ACROSS NRN
PA INTO IA. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED / SEGMENTED WWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...AS BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXISTS FROM ERN MT SWD INTO ERN NM.

WITH TIME...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITHIN WHICH MODELS FORECAST SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS. 
ALTHOUGH WEAK WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENTS MAY EXIST WITH EACH OF THESE
LOWS...IT APPEARS THAT BACKED / SELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. 

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
EJECTING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH / FRONT
/ DRYLINE MOVING EWD INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN MT SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY.  INCREASINGLY-STRONG SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE PERSISTENT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY.  TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS ACROSS THIS AREA --
PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL AND WRN NEB NWD INTO THE WRN 2/3 OF SD
WHERE MORE SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR.

ALTHOUGH MODE SHOULD INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLULAR...TREND --
PARTICULARLY FROM NEB NWD -- MAY BE TOWARD LINEAR / MCS
MODE...PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS / VEERS WITH TIME. 
ONE OR MORE MCSS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS / NEB TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEVERE THREAT --
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS -- LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N
OF THIS REGION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF
OK / N TX.  THIS COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW LOCAL BREACHING OF CAP AND ASSOCIATED / ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW /
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.

ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT...DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO.  STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING.

...MIDWEST ESEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
REGION ATTM -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN IL ESEWD TO THE APPALACHIANS. 
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG SURFACE FRONT
DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED...AXIS OF MODERATE WNWLY
DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ATTM...POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS.

..GOSS.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.