[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100555
SWODY1
SPC AC 100553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW
YKN 30 N RSL 55 N DDC 40 SSE GLD 40 SSE AIA 35 SSW REJ 60 S Y22 9V9
60 WSW YKN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ORF 40 WNW HTS 15 NW BRL 35 NNE CID 25 WSW LNR 20 NW SBN 25 NW LBE
25 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
HUT 50 WSW SPS 65 S CDS 30 ESE PVW 20 ESE EHA 15 NNW BFF 55 SW MLS
60 NNW MLS 25 E OLF BIS 35 N ATY 15 WSW MKT 10 N FOD 10 SW OMA 20 E
HUT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RRT 50 SSW DLH
40 ENE EAU 50 NE MKE 30 SSE DTW 20 NNW FKL 30 NE MSV 15 SE BOS
...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 ESE INK 30 WSW PVW 30 W EHA 40 SSE LIC 30 SSW
DEN 35 W ASE 20 S CNY 45 NNE BCE 35 WNW MLF 20 S ELY 50 SE BAM 80 NW
OWY 40 SE PDT 10 NE EPH 45 NNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL NEB
THROUGH SRN SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS
IN BASE OF NEGATIVELY TILTED WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NRN WY AND ERN MT. AS
THIS LOW DEEPENS...SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM NEB INTO WY WILL
LIFT NWD INTO CNTRL OR NRN SD DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDING NWWD TO THE SURFACE LOW IN SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
RESIDES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS S OF WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
IA AND NEB. MODERATELY STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS WY/MT. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH AND NWWD THROUGH MUCH OF SD. INCREASING
SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCES. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW REGIME N OF THE WARM FRONT. S
OF THIS BOUNDARY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE FROM
2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL
KS...NEB AND SD.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS WRN NEB/NWRN KS AND NWWD ALONG AND NE OF OCCLUDED BOUNDARY
THROUGH SD INTO SERN MT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO
40-50 KT ALONG WITH A SLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. INITIAL STORM MODE
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
EVOLVE INTO LINES OR LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SD NWWD INTO
MT...WHERE STRONGER FORCING AND BACKED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.
STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER SWD FROM NEB INTO KS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DISCRETE LONGER. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN MDT RISK AREA THROUGH MID
EVENING. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE MORE MCSS AS IT SPREADS EWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE STRONGLY FROM WRN KS SWD
INTO PARTS OF NW TX. INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS MORE CONDITIONAL
GIVEN WEAKER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS MIXING COMMENCES AND AS BAND OF
STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS S
OF EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS NW TX. MOREOVER...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

...ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI AREA...

STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST N OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA. VORT MAX NOW OVER
SE KS/SW MO WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
BE ONGOING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE AND N OF WARM FRONT FROM
PARTS OF IA THROUGH NRN IL. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM ERN IA/NRN IL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
PERSISTENT ONGOING STORMS...THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON DEGREE
DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.


...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE AND BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND S OF E-W COLD FRONT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...
KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL/GUYER.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.