[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100119
SWODY1
SPC AC 100117

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
FCA 35 E FCA 25 E LWT 35 S BIL 10 SW JAC 15 NW PIH 30 W 27U 40 ENE
LWS 40 NW 3TH 40 WNW FCA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
BUB 20 W GRI 20 WNW LBL 45 WNW EHA 20 ESE LHX LIC 15 SE LAR 25 SSW
DGW 30 ENE DGW 55 NW MHN 25 NNE BUB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
NEL 30 N BWI 20 SSE MGW 20 WSW PKB 35 W CMH 15 NE FDY 15 W JXN 20 SW
MBS 30 N MTC ...CONT... 30 NNE JHW 25 NE BOS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
UMN 10 WSW MLC 35 NNW ADM OKC 30 N BVO 15 N JLN 20 S UMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MRF 40 NNE SAF
35 NNW DRO 10 SSW MLF 55 SSE BIH 10 E MER 35 ESE UKI ACV ...CONT...
20 SSE CEC 20 NE SLE 20 NNE BLI ...CONT... 70 NNE DVL 50 NNE ATY 10
W RWF 35 NW OSH OSC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH A SMALL
PARTS OF SERN KS...SWRN MO...

...NERN U.S....

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF SURFACE FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM MAINE SWWD THROUGH SRN MI...AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL MULTICELL LINES OF STORMS PERSIST IN
THE WARM SECTOR FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THREAT
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.


...CNTRL PLAINS...

STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO
HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN MCS DUE IN PART TO NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE
ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NEB. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN MOIST UNSTABLE ELY LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. THIS SUGGESTS
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

...NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN REGION OF FAVORABLE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NWD INTO
 THE NRN ROCKIES. ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN MT
TONIGHT IN ZONE OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS N OF NWD DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE/BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED HAIL
AND DAMAGING WING GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY.


...CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SW MO...

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST A VORT MAX LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. SELY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET E
OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY (300-400 M2/S2) FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH SERN KS AND SW MO.
STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING WITH
SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LINES OBSERVED. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM BELOW VERY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS WILL
MAINTAIN THEAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING... MAINLY
WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL/NERN OK. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

..DIAL.. 06/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.