[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091618
SWODY1
SPC AC 091616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
LAR 45 NW LND 50 NW PIH 40 N SUN 60 SSW MSO 10 ESE 3TH FCA 15 NW GTF
30 NW SHR 20 NE 81V 55 ENE CDR 20 ENE MHN 15 N BUB 25 N GRI 10 NNW
HSI 30 SSW EAR 40 SSE GLD 45 ENE TAD 30 SW COS 20 SE 4FC 40 NNW LAR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 15 SW MSV 15 NNW PIT 20 WSW MFD
30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 30 WSW HTL 75 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS
30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 60 NNW
UKI 25 N ACV ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 35 SSE DVL FAR 30 W BRD 65 SSW
DLH 35 S IWD 30 ENE ESC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ONP 35 NW PDX
10 NW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPR OH VALLEY EWD TO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WNWWD INTO
SWRN MT/SERN ID...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TROUGH THAT HAS DEEPENED INTO NV WILL MOVE EWD AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING INTO THE PLAINS AS VIGOROUS SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD ACROSS SERN
CANADA.  WEAK UPPER LOW/VORT CENTER EJECTING NEWD INTO SRN PLAINS AS
TROPICAL SLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL BE MOVING
INTO NERN U.S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  FRONT TRAILS WSWWD AND
BECOMES STATIONARY THRU NRN IA...CENTRAL NEB/NWRN KS AND WWD INTO
CENTRAL CO.  SURFACE LOW NRN NV/UT BORDER AREA WILL DEEPEN NEWD INTO
WRN WY TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

...NERN U.S...
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE AS
TEMPS RISE THRU THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. MUCAPES FROM
3000-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON FROM UPR OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE VERY STRONG WLYS  HEADING EWD ACROSS SERN CANADA.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
MINIMAL CIN...WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS  THIS
AFTERNOON.  PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AS FREEZING AND WBZ LEVELS ARE HIGH. STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE
INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINES ENHANCING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WNWWD ACROSS WY/SRN MT AND  ERN ID.
UPSLOPE FLOW TO N OF STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WWD FROM NERN CO INTO MUCH OF WY... AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SWRN MT/SERN ID.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH STRONG
HEATING WILL RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON THIS AREA
AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY HIGH TERRAIN WY/NRN CO AND
SPREAD E/NEWD INTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
WITH MUCAPES TO 1500-2500 J/KG ERN CO/WY AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
ON N SIDE OF FRONTAL ZONE...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT ISOLATED TORNADOS
ARE ALSO LIKELY.  AS UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION INCREASE
NEWD ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS SERN ID/SWRN MT WHERE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SHEAR FOR A LEAST HIGH
BASED STORMS.

...SRN PLAINS...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY A VERY TROPICAL SLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF
VORT MAX EJECTING FROM NRN MEXICO.  WITH SFC-1KM  SHEAR OF 20-30 KT
AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG THERE CONTINUES A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER
ERN TX.  THREAT IS CONSIDERED TOO BE TO MARGINAL FOR A RISK AREA.

...FL...
VERY SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE IS  PLENTIFUL PW AND HIGH
CAPES IN FL.  SINCE 500MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY COOL...MINUS
9C...PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.