[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092006
SWODY1
SPC AC 092004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
LAA 25 ENE TAD 30 WSW PUB 15 NNE 4FC 35 NE RWL 40 SSW JAC 45 NNW TWF
50 NNW BOI 15 ENE LWS 45 WNW S06 70 NNW 3TH 45 WNW FCA 30 NNE FCA 45
N LWT 15 S ANW 25 SE BBW 40 SSW EAR 60 N GCK 35 S LAA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
BML 15 NW EPM ...CONT... 10 WSW HYA 20 SE FWA 30 NW LAF 40 WSW MMO
35 NE MLI 25 SSW MSN 40 N MKE 105 E OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ELP 35 WSW ONM
60 WNW GUP 55 ESE SGU 45 WSW DRA 10 N FAT 35 ESE UKI ACV ...CONT...
65 NNW DVL 35 SSW GFK 10 S BRD 30 NNW RHI 25 SE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 35 WNW PDX
10 ESE CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...SRN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WITH A COLD POOL IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN
LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CHICAGO
AREA. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTING FROM NW OH EWD TO SRN NY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS THE SHORTWAVE DRIFTS EWD...THE STORM
CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE
ERIE INTO NY AND NRN PA BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AREA SHOW WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING THE
CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE WIND
DAMAGE CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS NY AND NRN
PA...RANGING FROM 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN NY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
A COLD POOL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS NH...VT AND SRN ME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUE TO VERY LITTLE SHEAR...THE STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD LOSE THEIR WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS DURING THE EVENING.

...HIGH PLAINS...

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE DENVER AREA EXTENDING
EWD INTO NW KS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND THIS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE
PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SERN WY AND FAR NRN CO IS WEAKER
BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THAT AREA. BACKED SFC FLOW OVER ERN CO AND SRN WY
IS CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS VEERING COMBINED WITH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE CO AND LOWER LCLS ACROSS NE CO AND SE
WY WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS.

FARTHER NW ACROSS NW WY...ERN ID AND SWRN MT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
QUIET STRONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT. SBCAPE VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE FAIRLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL
RESULT IN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.