[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091300
SWODY1
SPC AC 091258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
LAR 45 NNW RIW 40 S LVM 30 SE BTM 60 SSW MSO 10 ESE 3TH FCA 15 NW
GTF 30 NW SHR 20 NE 81V 55 ENE CDR 20 ENE MHN 15 N BUB 25 N GRI 10
NNW HSI 30 SSW EAR 35 NW GLD 25 SW LAA 15 WNW PUB 20 SE 4FC 45 N
LAR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 15 SE BOS 15 SW MSV 15 NNW PIT 20 WSW MFD
30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 30 WSW HTL 75 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS
30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW
RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 35 SSE DVL 60 N ATY 55 NW RWF
30 S STC 15 SW IMT 30 ENE PLN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO WRN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER CA MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN ATTM WILL CONTINUE
EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  JUST AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS...BELT OF STRONGER SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT
EWD.  

MEANWHILE...MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SERN QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND ERN CANADA TROUGH.

ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ANTICYCLONICALLY NNEWD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NERN
CONUS...WHILE LINGERING IN AN E-W DIRECTION ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN NWWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWWD ACROSS WY INTO WRN MT...
WEAKENING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION JUST N OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE.
 ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY -- AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION --
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...GENERALLY WEAK
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. 

GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
NWWD...WHERE ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.
 AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIVES DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE -- MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN -- ACROSS THIS REGION. 
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL
STORMS.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY...EXPECT AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...AND MAY ALSO SPREAD EWD AWAY
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NEB AS SELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

...NRN IL EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS SRN ONTARIO / THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST /60S
DEWPOINTS/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON...FUELING THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION.  

ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WITHIN MORE STABLE
AIRMASS NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. 


ALTHOUGH STRONGER WIND FIELD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUGGEST A
HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY WEAKER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA.  WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY OVERLAPS WITH STRONGER FLOW -- PERHAPS ACROSS VT / NH /
SRN ME -- A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER THREAT MAY EXIST...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LIMITED ATTM IN TERMS OF LOCATING ANY POTENTIAL AREAS OF
GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITY.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.