[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090558
SWODY1
SPC AC 090557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
BML 10 NW EPM ...CONT... 20 ENE BOS 45 NNE MSV 25 W BFD 35 NNW MFD
35 N LAF 30 NE PIA 30 NNE MLI 15 NNE JVL 25 NNE MKG 75 ESE OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
CYS 30 NNE RWL 40 WNW CPR 35 WSW GCC 15 S 81V 40 NNW CDR 50 ENE AIA
20 SE MHN 25 ESE BUB 15 SSW OLU 40 E HSI 50 ENE HLC 40 SSE GLD 30
SSE LHX 15 WNW PUB 10 NNW DEN 20 WSW CYS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 NE TCS
30 WSW GNT 45 ESE PGA 30 WSW SGU 60 W DRA 30 W FAT 30 WNW SCK 30 NNW
RBL 10 NNW BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL 40 NE JMS 25 W AXN 50 NNE MSP
10 NNE RHI 15 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FROM SERN WY TO ERN CO...

...SRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND...

SURFACE PRESSURES WILL RISE ACROSS SERN CANADA IN THE WAKE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AIRMASS HAS GRADUALLY MOISTENED
UPSTREAM FROM THIS REGION WITH SWLY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW WELL INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG.  DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP...ROUGHLY 6-6.5C/KM...FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL EASILY
DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS.  MEAN WIND VECTOR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY.  IN
ADDITION...A MORE SLY COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR
GRADUAL COOLING AT CAPPING LEVELS AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION.  WITH PERSISTENT SELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S/60S IT
APPEARS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER EACH DAY ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE WELL
NORTH OF THIS REGION...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND
SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP. 
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITHIN STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN WY INTO
NEB PANHANDLE AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE MOIST WITH TIME. 
LATEST THINKING IS DIURNAL INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH NEWD MOVEMENT/OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO NEB
WHERE LLJ SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...TX...

N-S DEEP LAYER SHEAR AXIS HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WWD SHIFT IS OBSERVED.  VERY MOIST
PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. OF SOME CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES...AT LEAST 20KT IN THE LOWEST 1KM.  THIS MAY SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/GUYER.. 06/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.