[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 082005
SWODY1
SPC AC 082003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
OSC 40 NW MKG 55 E OMA GLD 10 NNW LIC 20 NNW DEN 45 N LAR 25 E DGW
45 WNW CDR 55 WNW VTN 35 ESE MHE 20 E MSP 45 NW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW AST 35 WNW EAT
15 NE 3TH 30 NNW 3HT 40 N SHR 30 SSW 4BQ 40 ESE 4BQ 40 WSW BIS 25 W
GFK 40 W INL ...CONT... 45 NW EPM 25 SE EFK 30 NNW UCA 20 W BFD 40
SSE FKL 30 SSE LBE 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 75 SW GDP 50 NE 4CR 35 SW
COS 40 E RWL 25 NNW JAC 65 NNE BOI 70 NNW WMC 15 E RNO 40 NE SCK 35
NE SFO 55 S UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BGS 50 S CDS 50
WSW END 30 W EMP 10 SSW MHK 25 SSE CNK 30 SW RSL 20 ESE EHA 50 WSW
AMA 40 E HOB 15 WNW BGS 45 NE BGS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A
SFC LOW ACROSS SE CO. PARTIAL CLEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM IN THE 80S AND 90S F ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. STORM INITIATION HAS BEEN PREVENTED BY
A CAPPING INVERSION OVER CO AND NEB. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WEAKEN THE CAP BY 21Z AND INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREA ACROSS SW AND CNTRL NEB...REF MD 1140. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN THIS AREA FROM
ABOUT 30 KT TO ABOUT 40 KT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS MOST LIKELY
DUE TO A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE JET NEAR 700 MB ACROSS WCNTRL NEB. THE
SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NEB. THIS IS CREATING CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND SUGGESTS A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY AS THE
SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE EWD SUPERCELL
TRACK POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MATURE EARLY THIS EVENING. A PLUME OF
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS SW AND CNTRL NEB WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE
HAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NEB WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GREATER. A CLUSTER OF STORMS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS...SHOULD TRACK NEWD REACHING
IA...SRN MN AND WI LATER TONIGHT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS
SEEN ON THE 18Z DAVENPORT IA SOUNDING.


...NRN ME...

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN QUEBEC ALONG A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST
AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WHERE MID 60S F SFC
DEWPOINTS EXIST RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG). THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ESEWD
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN ME...THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KT COULD HELP THE STORMS RETAIN A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN ME BY EARLY EVENING.


...FL...

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING WWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING WRN FL ATTM. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA
AND THIS WILL FAVOR PULSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL FAVOR A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO AROUND FT MYERS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
QUICKLY BY EVENING AS THE AIR STABILIZES.

..BROYLES.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.