[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081627
SWODY1
SPC AC 081625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E
OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS
25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N
OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP
25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW
COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 25 ESE JAC 15 SSW MQM 75 SW 27U 65
WSW BOI 65 NW WMC 30 W LOL 25 ENE TVL 50 NNE MER 25 W MER 15 S SJC
40 NW SFO ...CONT... 55 E BLI 40 NW EAT 15 N EPH GEG 25 WNW S06 LWT
35 WNW GCC 35 S 81V 25 N RAP 10 NNE Y22 45 NE BIS 25 WSW GFK 30 N
BJI 40 N HIB 85 NW CMX ...CONT... 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL 15 SW AMA 20
WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30 NE GCK
...CONT... 45 NW EPM 15 SE EFK 40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO
20 NW NHK 35 NNE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG
30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST
TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA BY 12Z WED.  DOWNSTREAM MUCH OF THE
AREA E OF ROCKIES WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING CHARACTERIZED
BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND WARM LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONG LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING RAPIDLY ENEWD SRN CANADA
CURRENTLY CROSSING JAMES BAY WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS
REMAINING PRIMARILY N OF CONUS.  THERE WILL BE FRINGE EFFECTS ACROSS
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET MAX PASSES BY TO THE N.


TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY THRU CENTRAL NEB AND NERN CO.

A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ENEWD TO WRN GREAT LAKES...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS RATHER WEAK WIND
FIELDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE  ACROSS
THIS AREA WILL BE LIMITED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AIR MASS VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO
VERY UNSTABLE  FROM NEB NEWD ACROSS SRN MN AND WI.  WHILE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KT MUCH OF THIS
AREA...THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PRIMARILY A MULTI-CELL
HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WIND THREAT.  FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF
STORMS WILL BE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE.

UPSLOPE ELYS N OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING WWD VICINITY PALMER
DIVIDE E CO...WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WWD TO FRONT
RANGE. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE AFTERNOON
SUPPORT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN NERN CO/SERN WY. 
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

...SERN U.S...
AGAIN TODAY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED  AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  MDT LAPSE RATES WITH MINUS 9C
TEMP AT 500MB MUCH OF AREA SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS. TYPICALLY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED VICINITY SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION.

...SRN PLAINS...
THE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX UNDER WAY SRN PLAINS IS ACCOMPANIED BY
30-40 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILE. 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON CENTRAL/ERN TX NWD INTO ERN OK. 
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AREA GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY SHEAR PROFILES AND VERY LOW LCL'S.

...NRN ME...
WITH THE STRONG WIND MAX PASSING BY TO THE N OF ME TODAY...THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A LOW END
THREAT OF SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..HALES/TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.