[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080539
SWODY1
SPC AC 080537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E
OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 25 ENE BIE 25 N RSL 35 S GLD 30 WSW LIC 30
W FCL 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N OTG
MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL
15 SW AMA 20 WSW LBB 40 ESE PVW 40 WSW GAG 45 WSW P28 35 SE RSL 30
NE GCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 WNW YKM
25 SE YKM 35 NNW ALW 25 WNW S06 30 NE MSO 45 W BIL 50 SW MBG 55 N
ATY 25 ENE BRD 85 NW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EPM 15 SE MPV
40 SW SLK JHW 30 WSW DUJ 35 SSW AOO 20 NW NHK 25 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG
30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP
25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW
COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 45 E JAC 25 E MQM 65 SW 27U 80 WNW
OWY 25 N LOL 25 ENE TVL 35 NW SFO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD INTO
ONTARIO/QUEBEC...AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NRN CA.  RESULTANT LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR LITTLE SWD MOVEMENT TO THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SWWD INTO NEB.  THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN OTHERWISE WEAKLY FORCED LARGE SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

LATE EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. DEPICTED A
VERY WARM CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS PLUME OF
ELEVATED AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPLIED FROM UPSTREAM HEAT
SOURCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. 
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY FORCE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE...PER RECENT DEVELOPMENT
FROM ERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

BY LATE AFTERNOON STRONG SFC HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO BREAK CAP
ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN NEB INTO NERN CO.  WITH
INCREASING ELY COMPONENT NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE
INTO SERN WY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT EVOLVE. EWD PROPAGATION
ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE...NORTH OF THE FRONT...IS EXPECTED AS LLJ
INCREASES SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

...NRN MAINE...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES QUEBEC.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BORDER DURING THE DAY. 
DEEPENING WLY COMPONENT WILL DRIVE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN
CANADA TOWARD NRN PORTIONS OF NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. 
HOWEVER...STRONGEST FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL NOT
APPROACH THIS REGION UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS AREA WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.