[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081254
SWODY1
SPC AC 081252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 E
OSC 40 NW MKG 30 SSE ALO 20 SE LNK 30 NNW HLC 15 WNW GLD 25 ESE COS
25 SE 4FC 40 NW LAR 15 NW DGW 60 WNW CDR 55 NW MHN 50 SSW MHE 20 N
OTG MSP 30 NW RHI 45 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GCK 20 SSW LBL
30 WSW LBB 30 SSW MAF 30 SSE BGS 45 NNW CDS 40 NE GAG 35 SE RSL 30
NE GCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI 40 WNW YKM
25 SE YKM 35 NNW ALW 25 WNW S06 30 NE MSO 10 S 3HT 45 SSE GDV 20 N
DVL 45 N TVF 20 NNE AXN 15 SSE DLH 50 N CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW EPM 20 S MPV 15
SSW ROC 30 NW CLE 30 S FDY 40 WNW UNI 40 ENE EKN 25 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW DUG 35 NE DUG
30 SW DMN 35 SSE DMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 40 NW GDP
25 E ALM 25 NE 4CR 20 NE LVS 15 SSW TAD 25 SE PUB 20 WSW COS 35 WNW
COS 55 NW 4FC 35 E RWL 40 SE RIW 45 E JAC 25 E MQM 65 SW 27U 80 WNW
OWY 25 N LOL 25 ENE TVL 35 NW SFO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID / UPPER LOW CENTER NOW OVER ORE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD WITH
TIME INTO NRN CA...WITH RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ERN U.S. FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SWD.  BELT OF STRONG WLY / WSWLY FLOW ALOFT --
WITHIN HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND CENTRAL / ERN CANADA
TROUGH -- WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NWD
/ NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS / MIDDLE MO VALLEYS TO A LOW CENTER IN ERN CO.  NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS CANADA AND
APPROACH NRN NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...FRONT
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY / UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS LOW PERSISTS OVER ERN CO.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TX NNEWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS INTO MO / IL / IN ALONG PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.  STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS NEB AND THE DAKOTAS...AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
/ N OF BOUNDARY AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES / WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS.

STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL N OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS.  BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ALONG MUCH OF FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. 
NONETHELESS...CONVECTION / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO
VALLEY REGION WITHIN BROAD / PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG / N OF
FRONT.

...MAINE...
ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL ETA SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ETAKF AND
RUC BOTH SUGGEST THAT WARM AIR AROUND 700 MB WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WHICH
WOULD DEVELOP WOULD POSE A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD WHICH IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD ETAKF / RUC GUIDANCE AND THUS MAINTAIN ONLY
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM. ASSUMING STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
OCCUR ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AGAIN SUGGESTS A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS NRN ME.

...SRN FL...
MORNING EYW / MIA SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
H5 TEMPERATURE NEAR -9C.  THIS WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST A THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND A FEW SEVERE REPORTS WITH MORE INTENSE
STORM PULSES -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG W
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

..GOSS.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.