[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 080059
SWODY1
SPC AC 080057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 NW LSE 30 S FRM 25 WNW OFK 15 SW BBW 60 WNW LBF 60
W VTN 50 N VTN 15 WNW HON 20 NNE ATY 45 E FAR 35 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ELP 30 S 4CR 25
NW RTN 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 40 SW RAP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 55 W RRT
...CONT... 50 N FCA 15 S 3DU 35 SW 27U 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 25 NNE BEH 40 NW
LAF 40 NNE EVV 35 SW LEX 30 W BKW 25 NNW RWI 15 ESE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW EAR 40 ESE MCK
10 NE GCK 30 SSE AMA 15 SSW BGS 25 WSW SJT 25 WSW BWD 30 E SPS 25
WNW TUL 45 ENE MKC 10 W OTM 30 S ALO 40 W ALO 50 ESE SUX 20 SSE OFK
20 N GRI 20 SW EAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
NRN NEB...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DEPICT A MUCH STRONGER
CAP THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF WARM
AIR ADVECTING EWD AROUND 700MB...ROUGHLY 13C...ACROSS SD...SRN HALF
OF MN INTO WI.

AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS ONTARIO...LLJ IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA...ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT/DEEP CONVERGENCE.  OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE
IS THE EXPECTED INCREASE TO THE LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL IMPINGE ON THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN SD/NRN
NEB.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-4HRS.

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT SOON DEVELOP ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD IT APPEARS WEAKENING CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL MN.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
IF ACTIVITY CAN GENERATE.  ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NRN MN WOULD
HOWEVER LIFT QUICKLY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO.  FARTHER
SOUTH...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ALONG TRAILING FRONT INTO NEB WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME ELEVATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS AT THIS TIME.

...MIDDLE UPPER TX COAST...

DEEP SLY FLOW OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS AIDED NWD EXPANDING MCS
 INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN TX.  00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP SUPPORTS THIS
NWD EXPANSION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT.  GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 06/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.