[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071957
SWODY1
SPC AC 071956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
IWD 30 SSW DLH 45 SSW HIB 45 E BJI INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 NW LSE 30 S FRM 25 S YKN 20 NNE ANW 9V9 25 SE ABR
20 SSE FAR 10 SE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 40 SE GTF
75 NW SUN 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 30 S 4CR 25 NW
RTN 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 40 SW RAP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 55 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 15 NNW GRR 50 WSW
FWA 20 SSW LUK 20 WNW BKW 35 W RIC 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 N PBG 35
N GFL ALB 10 SE BGM 20 WSW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BBW 10 SSE MCK
35 NNW GCK 50 W GAG 25 NNW OKC 40 NNW MHK 35 NNW FNB 20 ENE LWD 10
WNW OTM 30 S ALO 35 N ALO 30 SW FOD 20 SSE OFK 25 SSE BBW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN SD/EXTREME NERN NEB...
UPPER LOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE ENEWD
TOWARD CENTRAL MANITOBA IN RESPONSE TO 90-100 KT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN ND/SRN MANITOBA.  OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN
ONTARIO THIS EVENING...AND TO JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
SURFACE COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD INTO NWRN MN THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN SD
INTO NWRN NEB. NRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MN
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SRN PART OF FRONT REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY
ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN NEB.  WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO
JUST SOUTH OF DLH THEN NWWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NEWD...ALTHOUGH THE NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE RETARDED BY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF COOL LAKE WATERS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM ERN SD NEWD
INTO NRN MN...AND WARM 700 MB THERMAL AXIS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CAPPING SURFACE-BASED STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN MN DURING THE
21-00Z PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN SWD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD VEER AND
INCREASE WITH HEIGHT /SEE DLH VAD PROFILE/ CREATING STRONG SHEAR AND
SRH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THE BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND PERMIT A WIDELY
SCATTERED LINE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY 00-02Z.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONGER CELLS AND
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO PROMOTE STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS OVER EXTREME NERN
NEB/ERN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INCLUDING FLORIDA PENINSULA...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE 70-75F RANGE.  WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO
PRODUCE A FEW WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.

...ERN TX...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THEY MAY DEVELOP AN AGGREGATE OUTFLOW SPREADING NWD WITH
TIME.  THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS NWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...NERN OK INTO ERN KS/WRN MO...
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD OVER CENTRAL
OK...WITH GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE ROTATION. 
STRONGER HEATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY RESULT IN
NEW STORM FORMATION WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..WEISS.. 06/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.