[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071610
SWODY1
SPC AC 071608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
IWD 65 NNE MSP 30 NE STC 20 WNW BRD BJI 15 WNW INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ANJ 15 SE RHI 25 NW LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 40 ENE ANW 20 WSW 9V9 20
SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE GGW 40 SE GTF
75 NW SUN 40 SSE LMT 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 35 ESE 4CR 45
NE LVS 35 SW LIC 45 SE DGW 55 SW PHP 40 NE PIR 40 E JMS 70 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC 15 NNW GRR 50 WSW
FWA 20 SSW LUK 20 WNW BKW 35 W RIC 35 NE ORF ...CONT... 20 N PBG 35
N GFL ALB 10 SE BGM 20 WSW BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE BBW 10 SSE MCK
35 NNW GCK 50 W GAG 35 WSW END 20 E EMP 20 NE MKC 35 ENE P35 10 WNW
OTM 30 S ALO 45 SSE RST 25 WSW FOD 20 SSE OFK 25 SSE BBW.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NERN MN INTO NWRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY...

...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME
WILL MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY ENEWD TO ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. VERY
STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX...90-100 KT AT 500MB...WILL TRACK ENEWD
ALONG ND/CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY
THIS EVENING. 40-50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MN INTO
WI AND LS BY THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL VEERING TO WSWLY TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT AT 15Z ALONG ERN BORDER OF ND THEN SSWWD INTO NCENTRAL
NEB THEN TRAILING WSWWD INTO SRN WY.  FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN
MN INTO ARROWHEAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOW ITS SEWD MOVEMENT
TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEB PORTION.

WITH THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN INTO WRN UP OF
MICHIGAN MOVING N OF US/CANADIAN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...ALL OF
UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED BY THE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A CAPPED...VERY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WITH LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER EXCEEDING 8C/KM AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES...THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF EXPLOSIVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE ONLY AREA MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT CAP WILL GIVE WAY  DURING
THE MAX AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NERN MN.  WITH SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR OF 25KT...HELICITIES OF 200-300
J/KG AND MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 4000 J/KG...DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SEEMS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY AS THE CAP
WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION HAIL MODELS
DO INDICATE THAT ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DOWNBURST WINDS.

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWWD VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD EVENING AS FAR S AS NRN NEB.  SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
IN THIS AREA OF OUTLOOK...HOWEVER WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE CAP
REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL U.S.

...ERN OK/WRN AR...
WEAK SUBTROPICAL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SCENTRAL OK IS NOW DRIFTING
E OF N AND BY TONIGHT SHOULD BE INTO NERN OK. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL LIKE ENVIRONMENT E AND SE OF UPPER LOW
ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE IS LIKELY WHERE HEATING CAN OCCUR THIS PM.

...SERN U.S..
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF SERN U.S.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHEAR SHOULD CONFINE SEVERE THREAT TO THE PULSE
VARIETY LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND GENERALLY RANDOM IN
NATURE...DRIVEN BY THE MESO-SCALE.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 06/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.