[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 071244
SWODY1
SPC AC 071241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
IWD 60 NNE MSP STC 35 N AXN BJI 15 WNW INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 N LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 55 ENE ANW 40 NNE 9V9 20
SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 ENE BML
20 WSW LCI 30 SE BGM 15 NW JHW ...CONT... 145 ENE APN 25 WNW OSC 15
WSW GRR 35 SSE SBN 20 ESE MIE 30 SE CMH 50 WSW RIC 25 NE ECG
...CONT... 75 WNW MRF 35 SSW ROW 45 SE SAF 35 N LVS 35 NE TAD 25 SSE
LIC 25 SE CYS 25 SSW DGW 40 S GCC 40 NE 81V 10 SE Y22 10 WSW JMS 55
NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CTB HLN 30 NNE
27U 50 ESE BKE 50 S BNO 20 NW MHS CEC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL/NERN
MN...EXTREME NWRN WI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT ENEWD
ACROSS ND AND INTO NWRN ON LATER TODAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LOW DIGS
SWD ALONG THE PAC NW COAST.  SURFACE WARM FRONT...SITUATED ACROSS
NRN MN AT SUNRISE...WILL TRANSLATE NWD TO LIE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. 

SHORT TERM MODELS INSIST THAT LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS MN AND WRN WI NEWD THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD BENEATH
PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IN FACT...12Z SURFACE/
UPPER AIR ANALYSES ALREADY SHOW NEAR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS OVER
NCNTRL MN AND A 9.3 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AT ABERDEEN. AS WARM
SECTOR RAPIDLY HEATS THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPES WILL APPROACH
4000-4500 J/KG ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.  

THOUGH MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK...VIGOROUS HEATING WILL TAKE
PLACE TO AID IN CAP BREACH. FIRST INITIATION IS LIKELY OVER NWRN ONT
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP...WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD INTO
NERN/CNTRL MN 21-00 UTC ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME TODAY...BUT STRONG
LOW LEVEL SPEED/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR  TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND
1KM SRH VALUES EXCEEDING 230 M2/S2...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT GIANT HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.  

SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXTREME
NWRN WI AND THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI DURING THE
EVENING.  AS THEY DO SO...COLD POOL GENERATION MAY TRANSITION SEVERE
THREATS INTO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.  

FARTHER SW...VERY WARM MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL NOSE NEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO ERN SD AND SWRN MN.  THIS WILL TEND TO DELAY
ANY THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM INITIATION ALONG SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.  ISOLD TSTMS MAY VERY
WELL DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE/ LEE-TROUGH FROM
WRN KS ACROSS NRN NEB INTO SWRN MN.  RISKS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY... ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ
INCREASES DURING THE EVENING.

...ERN OK/NERN TX...
IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT MCS/MCV OVER NCNTRL TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND NERN TX DURING TODAY.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATS...OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PROVE
EFFECTIVE IN TSTM INITIATION.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH THESE STORMS.

...FL...
MIAMI...TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE 12Z SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SAMPLE H5
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND MINUS 8C.  HEATING...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEABREEZES AND THE RELATIVELY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL...PROBABLY
FAVORING INLAND AREAS. ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS. 


...SOUTH TX...
INCREASINGLY MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
ERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY MIDLEVEL SHEAR
AXIS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MOIST PROFILES BUT WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS TO WARRANT SOME MINIMAL RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.