[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070549
SWODY1
SPC AC 070546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
IWD 60 NNE MSP STC 35 N AXN BJI 15 WNW INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW
ANJ 15 SE RHI 30 N LSE 30 S FRM 30 SE YKN 55 ENE ANW 40 NNE 9V9 20
SE ABR 10 S FAR RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 145 ENE APN 25 WNW
OSC 15 WSW GRR 35 SSE SBN 20 ESE MIE 30 SE CMH 50 WSW RIC 25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 20 ENE BML
20 WSW LCI 30 SE BGM 15 NW JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CTB HLN 30 NNE
27U 50 ESE BKE 50 S BNO 20 NW MHS CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 35 SSW ROW
45 SE SAF 35 N LVS 35 NE TAD 25 SSE LIC 25 SE CYS 25 SSW DGW 40 S
GCC 40 NE 81V 10 SE Y22 10 WSW JMS 55 NNE DVL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL
MN...NWRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SERN SD INTO THE U.P. OF MI...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY...

NRN HIGH PLAINS UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS ND INTO WRN
ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON FLATTENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES
DOWNSTREAM...E-W WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY 12Z WITH A RAPID WARM SECTOR RECOVERY WELL AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS STATES WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS
INTO SERN SD AT 05Z.  LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC
DATA SUGGEST UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL RETURN
ACROSS MN/WRN WI INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY PEAK HEATING...RESULTING IN
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF MN
INTO WRN WI.  IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS...STRONG
HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE INITIALLY ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
ONTARIO...THEN BUILD SWD WITHIN SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW BY
21Z.  DESPITE THIS VEERED FLOW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP
LAYER VEERING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...VERY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST
EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE
WITHIN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
QUICKLY NEWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR/NWRN WI INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.P.
OF MI DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
STORM MERGERS AND BOW ECHO-TYPE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SW...VERY WARM PLUME OF AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SD DURING THE
DAY INITIALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT. 
BY LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WSWWD ALONG
BOUNDARY INTO NRN NEB...AND POSSIBLY ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN KS. 
HIGH THICKNESS VALUES AND WEAKER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

...ERN OK/NERN TX...

REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD ACROSS OK DURING THE
DAY.  THIS FEATURE HAS PROVEN EFFICIENT IN LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL INFLUENCE OF
LLJ ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION.  THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE.

...SOUTH TX...

DEEPENING SLY MOIST PLUME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN MEXICO
INTO SOUTH TX AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY SHEAR AXIS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY MOIST PROFILES BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
VEERING AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO WARRANT
SOME MINIMAL RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/07/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.