[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061631
SWODY1
SPC AC 061628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
INL 55 E FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 25 SSW RAP
81V 60 NNW REJ 30 SSE SDY 60 NW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ELP ABQ 30 E ASE
25 SSW LAR 20 ENE CPR 50 NW COD 55 NNE SUN 40 NW BNO 30 S ONP
...CONT... 30 SW PSX 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 35 NNW MFD 40
SSW FDY 45 SSE MIE 40 NE SDF 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E
ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W YKN 35 S AKO 15
NNE RTN 25 S CAO 35 NNW CSM 15 NNE TOP 35 NNW BRL 25 E ALO 55 W YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 20 WSW HIB
25 NNE STC 20 N MSP 25 WNW EAU 30 SSW ESC 60 W ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...DAKOTAS/NWRN MN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AS SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LEAD SYSTEM MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL MT
ATTM...AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD THE SRN PARTS OF SASK AND
MAN IT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  

SURFACE LOW NOW OVER ERN MT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND AS OCCLUDED LOW OVER ALTA MOVES SLOWLY EWD
INTO SASK.  WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN NEB/SRN SD NWWD INTO MT
LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NWD INTO ND IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AXIS OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS ANTICIPATED. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT RAP/RIW AND GGW EXHIBIT A LAYER OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL RESULT IN DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
 ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WRN ND WHERE PRIMARY FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE LOCATED...WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING SWD OVER PARTS OF WRN SD /ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS
REGION/.  FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE STRONG VEERING IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS INCREASING FROM SSELY FLOW OF 25-30 KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW AT 500 MB.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL HAIL.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND AS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NWRN
MN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THIS REGION BUT  IT
APPEARS THAT MULTIPLE MCVS ARE APPARENT OVER NWRN TX...EXTREME NERN
TX...AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW
POINTS OF 65-75F PERSISTS FROM SRN OK AND CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA AND
EWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST INTO NWRN FL.  A FEW CLUSTERS OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMA...AND ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS
REGION.

...FL PENINSULA...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN FL /REF
MCD 1114/ WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA.  12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED RELATIVELY
COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -10C WHICH ARE ENHANCING LAPSE RATES
AND CONTRIBUTING TO MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
 WEAK DEEP LAYER SWLY WINDS WILL ALLOW GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO
PROPAGATE INLAND AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/ERN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK
WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR PULSE STORMS FORMING/DISSIPATING AND
DRY AIR AVAILABILITY EVIDENT IN MFL/JAX/XMR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR.

..WEISS/CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.