[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061243
SWODY1
SPC AC 061240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
RRT 50 ENE FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 15 SSW RAP
30 ENE 81V 25 NNW GCC 40 W SHR 45 S BIL 40 E 3HT 55 NE LWT 65 ESE
HVR 65 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 50 W HOU 40
WNW CLL 50 WNW AUS DRT ...CONT... 80 SW GDP 50 SE ALM 40 WNW 4SL 40
NNE MTJ 15 NW CAG 40 S GCC 30 SW SHR 10 E MQM 45 NE SUN 30 ESE BOI
45 WSW BOI 45 SE RDM 40 WNW RDM 15 N ONP ...CONT... 30 NNE ELO 25 W
DLH STC 20 N OTG 65 ENE ANW 55 N IML 20 N GLD 45 N DDC 25 W HUT 15
NE MHK 35 WNW LWD 20 SE ALO 30 NE LNR 35 SSE ESC 10 NE ANJ
...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 ENE FDY 25 ENE LAF 25 W HUF 40 S BMG 25 SSE
JKL 35 WSW BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
A LEAD MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG PAC NW JET
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MT EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SASK DURING
MID-MORNING.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE RENEGADE CONVECTION BEFORE IT MOVES N OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  BODY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH BASED TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
FROM NERN CO TO NE WY/SWRN SD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY ZONE
OF INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ERN MT.  STRONGEST
INSTABILITY AXIS...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...WILL
REMAIN ACROSS CNTRL SD/ND.  AS THE TSTMS TRANSLATE EWD...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO GROW STRONGER WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THERE WILL BE A LARGE DEGREE OF CROSS-OVER BETWEEN THE LOW-MIDLEVEL
FLOW.  NONETHELESS...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 30C WILL KEEP THE
TORNADO RISK LOW...BUT ENOUGH FOR A 2 PERCENT PROBABILITY. AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON...TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND
POSSIBLY A MCS OR TWO AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN WITH RISKS
OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN LOWER MI...
SRN PART OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL GLANCE SRN LOWER MI DURING PEAK HEATING.  THOUGH 12Z
WHITE LAKE SOUNDING IS NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE TSTMS...NARROW AXIS OF UPPER 50S DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY
STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT EWD AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILISTIC WIND/HAIL THREATS FOR NOW.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VLY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EWD TO LIE MAINLY E OF THE
PLAINS TODAY.  LAST NIGHTS TSTM CLUSTERS WEAKENED BEFORE DAYBREAK
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
TO THE LOWER MS VLY MOST OF TODAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOCAL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP. 
IT APPEARS THE HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS WILL EXIST FROM W-NERN TX
EWD TO THE MS DELTA.  TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK AND BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREATS.  BUT...CAPE WILL BE
HIGH AND A FEW TSTMS MAY GIVE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.

...ERN FL...
MEAN SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.  H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AOB MINUS 8C AND GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.  SEVERE COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE ISOLD COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 06/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.