[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061951
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
INL 55 E FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 25 SSW RAP
40 W REJ 60 NNW REJ SDY 55 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ELP ABQ FMN 10
NE MTJ RWL 20 N DGW GCC 10 W SHR MQM 27U OLM 20 WNW CLM ...CONT...
30 SW PSX 25 SE DRT ...CONT... 30 ENE ROC BFD DUJ LBE HTS BWG BNA
TYS SSU 30 N SHD 30 ENE CHO WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W YKN 35 S AKO LAA
10 SSE LBL 35 NNW CSM 15 NNE TOP 35 NNW BRL 25 E ALO 55 W YKN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL AXN 10 NNE RWF 15
ENE MKT 10 ENE EAU 30 SSW ESC 60 W ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...DAKOTAS...
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/STRONGER JET CORE EMANATING FROM BROADER
SCALE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE TURNING
EASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS OREGON.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

PRECEDING THIS SHORT WAVE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EXIT REGION OF
HIGH LEVEL JET...WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF LEAD SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING
WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...ABOVE BOUNDARY
LAYER WHICH IS HEATING...AND BEGINNING TO MOISTEN MORE RAPIDLY.

THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NARROW TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS IS RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
 SOUTH DAKOTA. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION
OF THIS MOISTURE INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL OCCUR...AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SPREADS EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS PHASING OF
STRONGER LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL CULMINATE IN RAPID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE 07/00Z TIME FRAME...JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK.

MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 1500 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO RISK
OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.  EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THOUGH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WHILE RISK OF DOWNBURSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
DARK...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER.

OTHERWISE...STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTH OF UPPER
JET...ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG/WEST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST MONTANA...
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  WARM/DEEP MIXED  BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
RISK OF BRIEF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

...GULF COAST STATES...
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN LINGERING WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
WESTERLIES ARE AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 
ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZES...IN
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70S DEW POINTS. MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...PRIMARILY WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT ALSO PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL.  THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
CORES...AND NEAR ANY CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.