[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060550
SWODY1
SPC AC 060547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
RRT 50 ENE FAR 40 SSE FAR 30 ENE ABR 40 SSE MBG 25 SW PHP 15 SSW RAP
30 ENE 81V 25 NNW GCC 40 W SHR 45 S BIL 25 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WSW
SDY 55 N ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE ELO 25 W DLH
STC 20 N OTG 65 ENE ANW 55 N IML 20 N GLD 45 N DDC 25 W HUT 15 NE
MHK 35 WNW LWD 20 SE ALO 30 NE LNR 35 SSE ESC 10 NE ANJ ...CONT...
60 E MTC 25 ESE TOL 35 NNE LAF 20 ENE MTO 50 S BMG 25 SSE JKL 35 WSW
BLF 30 NW LYH 15 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW GDP 50 SE ALM
ABQ 40 ESE GUC 15 NNW FCL 35 N DGW 35 NE WRL 20 ESE MQM 35 NNW BNO
15 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS 50 W HOU 40
WNW CLL 50 WNW AUS DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...

NRN ROCKIES UPPER SPEED MAX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN MT INTO ND
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA.
 IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BUILD ACROSS
MT FORCING A COLD FRONT TO THE WRN ND BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
STRONG HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS NRN WY/SRN MT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO A POTENTIALLY MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NRN PLAINS...SBCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG.
 EARLY MORNING DIAGNOSTIC DATA AND 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
MODIFIED AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MO VALLEY WILL RETURN NWWD INTO
THE DAKOTAS WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE 50S...TO
POSSIBLE NEAR 60F DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  IT APPEARS A SFC LOW
SHOULD EVOLVE OVER WRN ND BY PEAK HEATING WITH A PSEUDO WARM
FRONT-TYPE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER
DURING THE EVENING.  AS FORCING INCREASES OVER THE NRN PLAINS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER WRN ND.  IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MATURE INTO
A POSSIBLE MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY INTO NWRN MN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...

MULTIPLE DAYS OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONSISTENTLY EVOLVED INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S
BEFORE MOVING SEWD AND WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX.  ALTHOUGH LONG
WAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EWD SLIGHTLY...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION AND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING/INSTABILITY...IN EXCESS OF
3000J/KG...SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN KS...ESPECIALLY IF OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE.  IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK.
 HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY A REGION FOR AN
ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS IF CONVECTION
ORGANIZES.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/06/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.