[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051950
SWODY1
SPC AC 051947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
HVR 40 SE 3HT MQM 10 ESE 27U 80 SSE S80 10 SW S80 30 SSW S06 70 ENE
63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
MQT CWA LNK P28 FSI DAL 10 SSE TPL 15 SSE JCT INK 10 NNW CVS RTN LAA
GLD IML MHN 30 WNW 9V9 ABR 25 N AXN 25 NNW ELO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
PIE 25 SE GNV 25 NW JAX 25 SW SAV 35 SSW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N MOT JMS FAR 10 E
GFK 55 W RRT ...CONT... 75 NNE APN AZO LAF DEC 40 SSW BLV 65 ENE LIT
GLH 15 E LUL TOI ANB RMG 15 NNW GSP 15 SSE RDU 10 E NHK 15 ENE SBY
...CONT... 50 ENE CRP NIR DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN TCS 4CR ABQ 15
SE FMN GJT VEL BYI 10 NW OWY 20 NE BNO 60 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE FL
PEN...

STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS INITIAL
STRONG JET STREAK NOSES INLAND OFF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. 
DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE...NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN PHASE. 
HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TURN EASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PEELS
AROUND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...PLAINS...
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER FLOW REGIME...LEE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT EXTENDS SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG NEAR SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LARGER-SCALE...
BUT DESTABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO MAXIMIZE WITH STRONGEST HEATING
NEAR BOUNDARY. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES 100 MB MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. 
GIVEN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WEAKENS FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. 
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE VICINITY OF THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER.  EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CLUSTER 
APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF LUBBOCK BY EARLY EVENING... WHERE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR/SYSTEM
RELATIVE INFLOW BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW
REGIME.  THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH...WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT SURGES THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
THIS EVENING.

...WESTERN MONTANA...
AS FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...
ENOUGH MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ON UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF GREAT
FALLS. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY MOST VIGOROUS CELLS AS SHEAR PROFILES
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS THROUGH THE
MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.