[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051245
SWODY1
SPC AC 051241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW
HVR 20 WNW LWT 20 E LVM 25 ENE MQM 45 ENE BOI 70 E BNO 25 W BKE 15
SW LWS 45 NNE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 135 NE
CMX 30 S ESC 25 ESE MKE 20 WNW BMI 15 N STL 25 SSE TBN 50 E FSM 35
SSW TXK 60 WNW LFK 35 E JCT 30 ENE FST 30 ENE CNM 50 NNW TCC 15 SW
PUB 15 ENE COS 15 NE LIC 15 W GLD 25 SW MCK 20 NW MHE 45 SSW BJI 25
NW INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
JAX 10 E ORL 30 WNW PBI 20 WNW MIA 45 W MIA 15 NNE FMY 30 NE PIE 25
SW GNV 45 WNW CTY 15 WNW AQQ 30 WSW MAI 45 SSE MCN 25 SW AGS 50 SSE
CLT 10 WNW GSB 35 WSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 40 SSW 4CR
30 SW LVS 45 NE 4SL 25 NNE DRO 50 W MTJ 30 N U28 50 WNW PUC 30 W SLC
15 NE PIH 55 NNE OWY 90 SE BNO 30 SW BNO 50 SW PDT 35 E DLS 30 NNW
DLS 55 ESE OLM 35 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 30 S SDY 50
NE RAP MBG 45 SW DVL 75 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR
30 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE APN HTL 35 NNE
BEH 15 WNW DNV 20 N CGI 35 WSW DYR 40 E GWO 30 W SEM 25 E LGC 35 SSE
AND 15 SSE HKY 30 SE 5I3 20 WSW UNI 20 ENE MFD 15 W DUJ 30 NW ELM 25
W EEN 10 ENE PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES
INCLUDING INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FL...

...PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST GIVEN AFFECTS OF
NUMEROUS MCS ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES REGION.  NWLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES DROPS SEWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY AND PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  

LEE-TROUGH/FRONT LOCATED FROM ND TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
MIGRATE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TODAY AS THE
CANADIAN DISTURBANCE DIGS SEWD.  STRONGEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH MN INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION BY TONIGHT. 
IF MORNING CLOUDS CAN THIN...INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES 1000-1500
J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTMS THAT
MAY GIVE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.  ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT...BUT PROBABLY WEAKEN GIVEN MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST.

FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE EVOLVED
FROM OVERNIGHT TSTM CLUSTERS.  THE STRONGEST FEATURES APPEAR TO BE
OVER ERN NEB AND OVER NCNTRL TX AND THE AFFECTS ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  AIR MASS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE VORT MAXIMA IS LESS UNSTABLE GIVEN RESIDUAL 
INFLUENCE OF RECENT ANTICYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT
HEATING...MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND MO AND OVER ERN TX THIS AFTERNOON. 
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE CONDITIONAL BASED ON MAINTAINED
INTEGRITY OF TSTMS ALONG THE MO RVR AND ACROSS NCNTRL TX THROUGH
PEAK HEATING.

THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR STRONGER TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM NM INTO KS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY APPEAR
STRONGEST. AS THE LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE OF A THREAT OVERNIGHT AS COLD POOL GENERATION
INCREASES.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF N OR CNTRL TX
AND OK.  AGAIN...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL TSTM CLUSTERS
WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. 
  
...NRN ROCKIES...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED WITHIN INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH NRN ID INTO WRN MT TODAY.
 MOISTENING COLUMN IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HEATING
WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS.  A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THROUGH EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

...SERN STATES INCLUDING INTERIOR FL...
CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC INTO SERN GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 
STRONG HEATING AND MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
TO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.  MLCAPES SHOULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG AND
A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MEANWHILE...OTHER TSTMS WILL FORM ON SEABREEZE COLLISIONS ACROSS
CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.  H5 TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND
MINUS 9C PER 12Z SOUNDINGS ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  GIVEN
WEAK FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE COLUMN...PULSE MULTICELL TSTMS WILL BE
FAVORED WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.

..RACY.. 06/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.