[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050541
SWODY1
SPC AC 050538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE
ANJ 25 SE TVC 25 ESE MKE 20 WNW BMI 15 N STL 25 SSE TBN 50 E FSM 35
SSW TXK 60 WNW LFK 35 E JCT 30 ENE FST 30 ENE CNM 50 NNW TCC 15 SW
PUB 15 ENE COS 15 NE LIC 15 W GLD 25 SW MCK 20 NW MHE 45 SSW BJI 25
NW INL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW
HVR 20 WNW LWT 20 E LVM 25 ENE MQM 45 ENE BOI 70 E BNO 25 W BKE 15
SW LWS 45 NNE 63S.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
JAX 15 WSW AYS 45 SW AGS 20 N CAE 15 SW SOP GSB 30 E EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 30 S SDY 50
NE RAP MBG 45 SW DVL 75 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE APN HTL 35 NNE
BEH 15 WNW DNV 20 N CGI 35 WSW DYR 40 E GWO 30 W SEM 25 E LGC 35 SSE
AND 15 SSE HKY 30 SE 5I3 20 WSW UNI 20 ENE MFD 15 W DUJ 30 NW ELM 25
W EEN 10 ENE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSX 45 WNW NIR
30 SE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP 40 SSW 4CR
30 SW LVS 45 NE 4SL 25 NNE DRO 50 W MTJ 30 N U28 50 WNW PUC 30 W SLC
15 NE PIH 55 NNE OWY 90 SE BNO 30 SW BNO 50 SW PDT 35 SE EPH 45 N
EAT 35 SSW YKM 55 NNE PDX 35 NE SEA 25 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SWWD
INTO TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION AND NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS PERIOD AS STRONG
UPPER SPEED MAX DIGS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.  NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD WITHIN MEAN NWLY FLOW
INTO THE MS VALLEY...TRAILING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OVERALL AFFECT OF THIS SUBTLE SHIFT EWD IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE TO
FORCE A SFC BOUNDARY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NRN U.S. INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK
HEATING.  COMPLICATING FACTORS FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL AREAS FOR
STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS ACTIVITY.  ONGOING CLUSTERS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO NWRN TX WHERE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT MCS IS SURGING SEWD
EARLY THIS MORNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR RECOVERY DURING THE DAY APPEAR STRONGEST ALONG
SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN NM INTO KS.  INCREASING LLJ INTO THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALSO FAVORS STORM INTENSIFICATION.
 FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST STORM MOTION WILL INITIALLY PROVE
ERRATIC...OR PERHAPS A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITHIN AN AIRMASS LIKELY
EXHIBITING SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG.  WITH TIME AN
EXPANDING PRECIP SHIELD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW FOR ONE OR
MORE MCS/S TO DEVELOP...THEN SURGE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. 
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE THREATS AS IT
PROPAGATES INTO NORTH TX LATE IN THE PERIOD.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER MN INTO ERN NEB...BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO A MORE MARGINAL
ZONE OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL MO. 
AGAIN...LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

...NRN ROCKIES...

A STRONG UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS ORE INTO ID LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH AN EVER INCREASING ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED FROM ERN
WA/ORE INTO WRN MT.  DESPITE MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...STRONG
FRONTAL ZONE AND AMPLE HEATING WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ID/WRN
MT...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO
CENTRAL MT BEFORE WEAKENING.

...CAROLINAS...

STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST STATES INTO THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF SBCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG WILL EVOLVE BY MID DAY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS
WITHIN VEERED BUT CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
OCCUR BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING STABILIZES AIRMASS.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 06/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.