[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041958
SWODY1
SPC AC 041954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
CTY 10 NE VLD 35 ENE ABY 35 NNW MCN 30 S SPA 45 ENE HKY 20 WSW DAN
20 NE ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
DVL 50 SSW FAR 25 E HON 40 WNW OFK 15 S GRI 40 N RSL 35 SSW END 45
SW DUA 20 S DAL 50 SW LBB DHT 15 SE LHX 35 WSW AKO 40 WSW BFF 60 NE
DGW 20 N REJ 25 NNW DIK 10 N MOT 10 ESE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP
40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE
TWF 35 SW SUN 20 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35
E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE
IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL
30 S SEM 30 E MGM 25 E ANB 25 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG
20 NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
STATES...

...SERN STATES...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NC TOWARD SERN VA/DELMARVA AREA...AS WARM FRONT ALSO
MOVES NWD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
SERN STATES.  WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT AND SWD
ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF ERN SC.  35 KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NC/VA...ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS NC INTO SERN VA AS THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT MOVE
NEWD.  LOW LCLS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF AND
ENE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADOES.  FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO NRN FL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THESE AREAS.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ SRN
FL ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS...AND
ALONG THE GUST FRONT ADVANCING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN PULSE... MULTI-CELL STORMS WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WET MICROBURTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


...PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN
MOISTURE NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALREADY EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WRN KS TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS NWRN TX.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ATOP
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS
RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN PORTION OF
THE PLAINS STATES...ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.  FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN/WRN TX INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE...ALONG AND SOUTH A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN
TX.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING
SWWD FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER OK ATTM...IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NWRN INTO NRN TX.  THE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA IS VERY UNSTABLE
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY STRONGER NWLY FLOW
WITH THE OK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.

FARTHER NWD...A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ACROSS CO TO
MT WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS/WY SWD TO NM.  VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  AS
THE STORMS MOVE ESEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WRN PLAINS...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.  ALTHOUGH LCLS WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE OF THE
LLJ THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS PROVIDING
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW INTO THE STORMS...ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD...WITH THE THREAT BEING MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.

**FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PLEASE REFER
TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.**

..PETERS.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.