[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041624
SWODY1
SPC AC 041621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
TLH 20 WSW ABY 10 SSW ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY 40 NNE RDU 25 ESE
ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
DVL 30 SE JMS 30 NE HON 55 WSW YKN 15 W GRI 35 N RSL 30 NW END 35
WSW ADM 55 NNW ABI 50 W LBB 20 ESE CAO 15 SE LHX 35 ENE DEN 40 WSW
BFF 50 ENE DGW 15 NW REJ 35 NW DIK 30 W MOT 25 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 50 SW GUP
40 S 4SL 45 NE 4SL 55 W ALS 10 E GJT 30 NNW PUC 30 SSE ENV 55 SSE
TWF 30 SSE SUN 40 NNW BOI 50 WNW BKE 65 N 4LW 30 N LMT 55 ESE EUG 35
E OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 25 SSE VOK 40 E DBQ 25 NNE
IRK 35 NE MKC 25 WNW SGF 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 20 WSW LUL 30 ESE LUL
60 ESE MEI TCL 25 SW HSV 30 SW BNA 15 N OWB 30 SSW BMG 25 NE YNG 20
NW IPT 25 SE AVP 15 NNE JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY NWLY FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE U.S. AS WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KY/TN WEAKENS AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE
WV/WRN MD REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ALSO...STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PACIFIC...JUST S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WILL
SEND A MID LEVEL TROUGH ENEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL SHIFT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EWD
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW...A REFLECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER
KY/TN...WAS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NEWD TODAY...WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NC WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD
EXTENDING ACROSS E CENTRAL VA/SERN MD AS WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGS EWD
INTO SERN GA AND NWRN FL BY 05/12Z.

...SERN QUARTER OF THE U.S....

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN NC
AND CENTRAL/SRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA.  MLCAPES ACROSS NC ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND MORNING RAOBS INDICATED THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE 6.0-6.5C/KM. MOST EVIDENT IS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
AT MID LEVELS FROM THE SW INTO CENTRAL NC ATTM.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE UVVS AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS 20 KT OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGION...SO WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

IN FL...AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES EWD/SEWD INTO NWRN PARTS
OF THE PENINSULA...PULSE TYPE STORMS MAY BE THE RULE AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES CONVECT LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG/ THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT ON
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE.  ETA MODEL DEPICTS
STRONGEST VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVES SEWD ACROSS SD/NE/KS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  BIGGEST CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS ESTIMATING
NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE DEW POINTS. ETA MODEL BRINGS UPPER 50S
DEW POINTS NWD INTO ERN ND. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 50S IN SERN SD WELL AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. 
THUS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/DEVELOPING MCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPE AROUND 2500
J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KT INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY THEN DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS
WITH MAIN THREATS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.