[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041256
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ
DHN 30 SE ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY DAN 25 ESE ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50
E FAR 10 SE ATY 55 WSW YKN GRI CNK HUT P28 CSM AMA EHA 40 N LAA 35
ENE DEN 40 WSW BFF DGW 4BQ GDV 50 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FHU 20 SW SOW
20 WSW DRO 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW PUC 35 SW ENV 20 NW BOI 15 SSW S06 35
NW CTB ...CONT... 30 ENE ELO 25 ENE SUX 35 ENE JLN 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE
MLU 15 ENE MCB 40 WNW MOB 60 ESE MEI TCL 20 S MSL 30 SE MKL 25 N PAH
30 SSW BMG 25 NNW PIT PSB 25 SW ABE 10 ESE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
PLAIN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES
INCLUDING FL...

...SERN STATES...
UPPER LOW VCNTY BOWLING GREEN KY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EJECT
NEWD TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT/ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THAT
IS PROGD TO TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. 
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NORTH OF THE MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK WILL ENHANCE E-W FRONT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  WARM SECTOR
SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE OWING TO NEAR 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC/NC AND/OR ALONG WEAK FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. 
ALONG/EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCLS
WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO. 

...FL...
WEAK INHIBITION AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MANY PARTS OF FL THIS
AFTERNOON.  FLOW IS WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT UPDRAFTS WILL
BE VIGOROUS GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH RELATIVELY COLD H5
TEMPERATURES.  AS A RESULT...PULSE MULTICELL TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.

....PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
OWING TO PENETRATION OF SURFACE RIDGE WELL SOUTH INTO TX. 
NONETHELESS...HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CO-MT WILL
INITIATE TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.  TSTMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS AHEAD
OF A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING FROM UT INTO WY/MT THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS AND GIVEN SELY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING MIDLEVEL
FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  SEVERE
WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT ALONG WITH LARGE HAILSTONES.  

ONE OR MORE MCSS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GEOGRAPHY AND TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE LARGEST TSTM CLUSTERS TO CONGEAL AHEAD OF
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
FROM PARTS OF THE DAKS INTO CNTRL/WRN NEB.  THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL...BUT THE LATE NIGHT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. 

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/FAR W TX...RECENT SURGE OF 50S BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.  THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER
NORTH...BUT AS THE STORMS MATURE...EFFECTIVE COLD POOL GENERATION
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS...THUS THE LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE
THREAT.  

...SRN PLAINS/TX...
WEAK MCS MOVING ACROSS OK MAY LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SRN OK
OR NRN TX THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BE UNSTABLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK...BUT NWLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW MAY AUGMENT ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
ALSO AUGMENT HAIL PRODUCTION.  THESE STORMS ARE APT TO MOVE SEWD
INTO PARTS OF THE SABINE RIVER VLY WITH A CONTINUED ISOLD THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.