[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040534
SWODY1
SPC AC 040530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ
DHN 30 SE ATL 70 S TYS HSS 50 NNE HKY DAN 25 ESE ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 50
E FAR 10 SE ATY 55 WSW YKN GRI CNK HUT P28 CSM AMA EHA 45 SSW GLD
AKO 40 WSW BFF DGW 4BQ GDV 50 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW FHU 20 SW SOW
20 WSW DRO 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW PUC 35 SW ENV 20 NW BOI 15 SSW S06 35
NW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE ELO 25 ENE SUX
35 ENE JLN 35 WSW PBF 45 ESE MLU 15 ENE MCB 40 WNW MOB 60 ESE MEI
TCL 20 S MSL 30 SE MKL 25 N PAH 30 SSW BMG 25 NNW PIT PSB 25 SW ABE
10 ESE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE FL PEN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS....

SPLIT IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  HOWEVER...AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EVOLVES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...AND ROTATES
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY...MODELS INDICATE BELTS
WILL GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE FORM OF AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...AS LOW
AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL ONLY SLOWLY LIFT
EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...ON NOSE OF MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK OVERSPREADING
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  WHILE THIS MAY TEND TO
SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING NEAR 70F ACROSS THIS REGION...CAPE
IN DEEPENING/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AS MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION INCREASES ONCE AGAIN WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN...RESULTING IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR SURFACE TROUGH.  THOUGH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST CELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...FLORIDA...
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND WEAK INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO
AGAIN FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
DURING THE  LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH VERY MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW
DOWNBURSTS.

...HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
EAST TEXAS HAS DRIED LOWER LEVELS...AND WILL PRECLUDE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN TO LEE SURFACE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH CAPE  RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BENEATH
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST EXTENSIVE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE
MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN CAP.  FARTHER SOUTH...STRONGER CAP WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
MAY TRANSITION TO GROWING...SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS WILL OCCUR ON EASTERN EDGE
OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET.

GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS...SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS MAY DIMINISH RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EVENING AS BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST...AND WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
INHIBITION...DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED/BROADER-SCALE WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

..KERR/BANACOS.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.