[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040101
SWODY1
SPC AC 040057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4LW 60
NW 4LW RDM PDT 55 ENE S80 27U 40 N SUN 10 E BOI 70 SSE BNO 4LW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
SAV 35 NNW AYS 30 N ABY 10 ESE MGM 45 SW 0A8 40 NNW MEI 20 E GWO 25
WSW TUP 35 E TUP 30 NNW BHM 40 WNW ATL AHN 30 WSW HKY GSO RDU 30 ESE
ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
CDR 45 SSE RAP 35 N MHN MHN IML EHA CVS 45 WNW ROW 35 NNW ELP 40 ENE
DMN 20 E ONM 40 SSE SAF LVS PUB 40 WNW CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DMN SVC GNT
FMN CNY PUC 10 SSE SLC 30 E EKO 45 W OWY MHS MFR 45 E EUG DLS 50 WNW
ALW 25 NNW 3TH 35 S HVR GGW ISN MBG PIR ANW BBW RSL 10 W P28 LTS 10
ESE MWL 40 NNE LFK ESF BTR 45 NNW MOB 25 SSW SEM MEI 25 N JAN GLH
MKL CGI 10 SW MVN 40 NNE EVV SDF HTS EKN 30 NE CHO 20 SSE WAL
...CONT... 60 S CRP 15 SSW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 20 SSW BDL
20 SE ORH 25 ESE PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE ERN
GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST....

...HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING CREST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGE HAS SUPPORTED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF LEE SURFACE TROUGH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED OFF HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE UNCERTAIN...WITH ONLY NARROW
TONGUE OF LOWER/MID 50S DEW POINTS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER.
 CONSIDERING WARMTH OF AIR MASS ALOFT...THIS MOISTURE MAY ONLY
SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS.  STILL...NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO
MAINTAIN SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. 
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AS
BASE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
THOUGH MARGINAL MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC HAS LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS...DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.  LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE
THREAT BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING.

...SOUTHEAST...
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS... EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...SOME DEEPENING OF LOW AND INCREASE IN
LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS NOW INLAND
OF COASTAL AREAS...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTS RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD 04/12Z.

**FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.