[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 032023
SWODY1
SPC AC 032019

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
4LW 45 NNW 4LW 70 SW PDT 20 WNW LWS 30 WSW MSO 25 WSW DLN 20 NE PIH
45 NE OWY 80 NNW WMC 35 ENE 4LW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
MRF 45 NW GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 20 WNW FCL 15 SSE DGW 40 SE 81V
30 E RAP 40 W VTN 20 NW MCK 45 NE GAG 30 S LTS 35 S SEP 40 NW BTR 50
NNE GLH 30 NW DYR 40 ENE PAH 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 15 SE
PSX 25 NW VCT 35 NNE HDO 45 NNE DRT 25 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 10 E SAD 25
ENE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 WNW EKO 75 WNW WMC 25 NNW MHS 45 SE
EUG 30 N PDX 35 N SEA 25 NNW 3TH 40 WNW HVR 15 NW SDY 15 W HON 15
ENE OLU 10 NNW SLN 40 ESE P28 OKC 15 N ADM 35 SE MLC 40 NW FYV 35 N
SGF 10 WNW JEF 20 NW STL 30 SW HUF 30 WSW MRB 15 ENE SBY ...CONT...
GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE SERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE/FAR SERN WA TO
MUCH OF ID...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO TX PANHANDLE/SWRN KS/WRN OK...
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE NOW LOCATED ACROSS ID/NWRN UT
AND A SECOND MOVING ACROSS SRN UT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND
THEN SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SRN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN OK/WRN TX BY 12Z
FRIDAY.  BROAD AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A SLY RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F
CURRENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN CO TO WRN SD. SURFACE HEATING
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN WY/NERN UT INTO CENTRAL CO.  AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN...RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SW TX/ERN NM NWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD INTO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...CAPE/
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH LCLS SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT.

AT LEAST ONE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO LATER THIS
EVENING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30-40 KT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO ERN CO/WRN KS.  NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHT VEERING OF THE LLJ LATE TONIGHT SUGGESTS THIS MCS WILL
POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX BY 12Z.

...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN PLATEAU...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING/MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER
ERN PORTIONS OF ORE/WA TO WRN MT...IS LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONG
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH
SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE/SERN
WA INTO ID BY LATE AFTERNOON. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PAC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES.  COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
NRN CA ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES...AIDING IN THE
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ERN WA/ERN ORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD
WRN/CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NRN CA TROUGH AND
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING INCREASING THE INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT
RISK IS BEING ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN ORE/SERN WA INTO ID FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SRN GA/NRN FL...
VIS IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
E-W ACROSS FAR NRN FL. ONGOING FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM SWRN GA TO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE PER REGIONAL RADARS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE AIR
MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL.

...TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON.  THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED OVER MIDDLE-ERN TN AND
NRN MS TO NRN GA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST
BENEATH BAND OF 45 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID MS/LOWER TN VALLEYS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED GIVEN OBSERVED
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.