[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031643
SWODY1
SPC AC 031639

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CRP 40 ESE NIR 10 WSW JCT 50 W SJT 25 N GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 10
N FCL 25 SE DGW 50 SE 81V 35 WSW PHP 40 W VTN 20 NW MCK 15 ESE LBL
30 E CDS 20 SE SEP 40 NE LFK 50 ENE PBF 20 SW PAH 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE
ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE DUG 10 E SAD 25
ENE CEZ 15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 30 ENE LMT 50 SE EUG
30 N PDX 35 N SEA 25 NNW 3TH 40 WNW HVR 15 NW SDY 15 W HON 15 ENE
OLU 10 NNW SLN 40 ESE P28 OKC 15 N ADM 35 SE MLC 40 NW FYV 35 N SGF
10 WNW JEF 20 NW STL 30 SW HUF 30 WSW MRB 15 ENE SBY ...CONT... GON
40 W ALB 30 NNE ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.
AND ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
 ONE MID LEVEL LOW/SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER SERN MO AS ANOTHER
EXITS THE NERN CORNER OF THE U.S.  ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PACIFIC/GULF
OF ALASKA REGION.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SEND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID
MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGION.  QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
FROM THE NC COAST WWD ACROSS NRN GA THROUGH A COUPLE WEAK LOWS OVER
NWRN MS AND EAST CENTRAL TX.  CONVECTION IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF ADVANCING BOUNDARY THAT BEGAN
OVER THE SRN PLAINS ATTM YESTERDAY.  FINALLY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWWD INTO SERN AZ
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN AND
NWRN TX.

...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...

ACTIVE BOW LINE SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE AND IS MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS REGION. 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THIS
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER SWRN AL. ADVANCING LINE WILL ALSO
ENCOUNTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH MID LEVEL
DRYING PRESENT...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...

AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON ANTICYCLONIC
SIDE OF SWRN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES SURFACE RIDGE
ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS THE BLACK HILLS OF SD.  DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
STEEPEN LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH
FORECAST CAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG.  WEAK SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED
WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT INDICATES DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN PLATEAU...

MODELS INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE WA COAST INTO NRN CA BY 04/00Z. 
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS WITH LIFTED
INDICES TO AROUND -4...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND
8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM ACROSS THE AREA.  MID LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KT IS
FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR OR/WA AND MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE THROUGH ID INTO MT TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.