[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031305
SWODY1
SPC AC 031302

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CRP 40 ESE NIR 10 WSW JCT 50 W SJT 25 N GDP 45 ENE ALM 25 WNW COS 10
N FCL 20 NNE CYS 15 NNW BFF 25 E AIA 35 SSW MHN 20 NW MCK 15 ESE LBL
30 WSW CSM 30 SSW ADM 20 NW TXK 45 W UOX 10 SSW CKV 30 WNW LOZ 20 NE
ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ
15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 30 NNW OWY 80 E 4LW 30 ENE LMT 70 NE MFR 20 ENE
PDX 55 WNW YKM 35 NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE
SLN 25 NW PNC 15 SE PNC 25 NE TUL 25 WNW EVV 55 WNW HTS 15 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE
ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...CAROLINAS AND
FL...

...ERN CO/W TX/ERN NM...
A LEE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE TODAY ACROSS ERN CO AND THIS WILL CAUSE
SFC WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE NWD INTO ERN CO TODAY
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S F. AS TEMPS
WARM...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND STORMS SHOULD GENERATE
IN THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A
BAND OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM SERN WY EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE
NE TX PANHANDLE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THIS
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SUPERCELLS ISOLATED. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL
CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC AND INVERTED V
PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF.

...TN/NRN AL/NRN GA...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN
MO...AR AND NRN LA. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE AND THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY
AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. SFC HEATING THIS MORNING
WILL RAISE THE INSTABILITY AND HIGH-END MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT JACKSON MS SHOWS 30 KT AT 500 MB WITH THE BNA
12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 40 KT IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ACROSS TN AND MS SPREADS EWD...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IF A COLD POOL ORGANIZES...THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS NRN GA AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS THE MCS MOVES EWD THIS EVENING.

...PACIFIC NW...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA WILL
MOVE NEWD TODAY INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
PRIMARILY IN THE 40S F ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE
80S F...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MTNS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...INVERTED V PROFILES
AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.