[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030539
SWODY1
SPC AC 030536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
CRP HDO 10 SE SJT MAF CNM 4CR SAF 50 W RTN TAD CYS DGW 40 ENE SHR
4BQ REJ PHP 35 E MCK 10 NNE DDC 50 SW GAG MWL TPL CLL LFK 45 N POE
LUL TCL GAD AND 25 ESE GSO 35 ENE RWI 25 NNW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DUG 20 NE CEZ
15 N CNY 20 ENE DPG 35 NNW OWY 20 WNW LMT 35 SSE PDX 45 SSE SEA 35
NNW 3TH 15 SSW HVR 15 NW SDY HON 15 ENE OLU 30 SSE SLN 35 W TUL 30
SW UNO 35 NNW HOP 25 N JKL 35 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 40 W ALB 30 NNE
ART.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...GULF COAST STATES...AND HIGH
PLAINS....

DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT INTO A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW.  MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MOST PROMINENT WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
PROGRESS THROUGH BROADER SCALE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE INTO EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH.

...GULF COAST STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST MAIN LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS
STATIONARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER...REMNANTS OF MASSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
LIKELY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS BY DAYBREAK...STABILIZING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS REGION.  PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY CLOUD
COVER/DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...MID-LEVEL
CAPPING WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SMALL FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW MIGRATING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF STATES BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL
ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
DESTABILIZE.  INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS.  DESPITE PROBABILITY OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30 TO
50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
BETTER INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE STRONG HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN MIXED LAYER IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG.  FORCING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/EAST OF THERMAL LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS APPEAR POSSIBLE BENEATH BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...PRIMARILY WITH RISK OF LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


INSTABILITY AFTER DARK ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUATION OF SEVERE
THREAT...AS MID/UPPER FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.


...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING,  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OR SO APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY... AND
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA
BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING
EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

...HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MOST CONCENTRATED BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED AS SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
TOPS CREST OF RIDGE.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY
WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION FROM SUPERCELLS TO AT LEAST SMALL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY THIS EVENING.  TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR THIS
CLUSTER TO DEVELOP MORE SOUTHWARD THAN SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING MAGNITUDE
OF MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE PACIFIC...BUT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO MICROBURSTS
IN STRONGER CELLS...AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT BY 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

..KERR.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.