[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030059
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
CRP NIR HDO 20 E JCT 30 SSW ABI AMA DHT CAO LHX LAA LBL 30 SE GAG
ADM 20 WNW TXK 10 ESE HOT 30 SW DYR 40 SW CKV CSV TRI 35 WNW HKY GSP
ATL AUO TOI 30 WNW CEW 20 SSE MOB 25 SSE HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ELP ALM ONM
GNT DRO 45 NNE CEZ U28 PUC 10 NNW EVW MLD TWF SUN DLN BZN 10 SE LVM
WRL 10 NNW RWL SNY MCK HLC 10 WNW HUT 10 NNW BVO FYV HRO ARG 40 N
DYR 15 NNW HOP 25 W LOZ HTS 15 S UNI LUK 30 S MTO SPI 15 N PIA 30
SSW SBN AZO 55 ESE MTC ...CONT... 20 NNW ROC 30 SSE UCA 30 SE MWN 40
SW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 25 WSW HDO
JCT SJT 45 S BGS 80 SSE MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF
THE SOUTHERN STATES....

...SRN PLAINS INTO LWR MS VLY AND WRN/CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREAS...
ON NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO BASE OF A LARGE
SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS REGIME...INCLUDING ONE WHICH INITIATED EVOLUTION OF LARGE
ONGOING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX REGION.  WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK OUT OF
KANSAS MAY AID CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF MCS.

LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. 
DEW POINTS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 70S...
CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG...
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL. 
GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF COLD POOL...AND LITTLE TO SUGGEST
WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  ARE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

ACROSS TEXAS...LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVIDENT IN 03/00Z RAOB
FROM FORT WORTH PROVIDES A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT
OF SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY WITH ONSET OF AT LEAST
WEAK RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...
GIVEN ONGOING EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN ZONE
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NEAR/ WEST OF WICHITA
FALLS...GENERATION OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD POOL APPEARS LIKELY. LIFT
ON LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD POOL MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
CAP...AND SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING...INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT.  THIS AREA
IS GENERALLY IN WEAK FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF WESTERLIES...BUT STRENGTH
OF SURFACE COLD POOL MORE THAN LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SWATH OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...TENNESSEE VALLEY...
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK WHICH INITIATED UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  ENHANCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR/MOMENTUM BENEATH BELT OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION INTO
DAMAGING WIND CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXISTS.  BOUNDARY LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF GROWING CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE/EXTREME NORTHERN GULF STATES...AND ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

**FOR MORE DETAIL ON ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PLEASE REFER TO
LASTEST SPC MESOCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 06/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.