[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021305
SWODY1
SPC AC 021301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
DAB 45 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT 50 SSE AUS 40 SE JCT 30 WSW SJT
30 NNE HOB 30 WSW TCC 15 NNE RTN 30 WSW LHX 15 NNW LAA 50 E LAA 50
WSW P28 50 ENE OKC 10 W FSM 40 SW JBR 10 NE CKV 25 ESE LUK 25 E MFD
20 SE ERI 25 SE BOS ...CONT... 15 ENE ACY MRB 25 S EKN 25 S TRI 25 E
RMG 15 SE ANB 20 NW AUO 30 S CSG AYS 20 NE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD
...CONT... 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 15 NW
SLC 60 W BPI 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE DGW 20 SSE ICT 30 NE BVO 25
NE SGF DNV 10 E MTC ...CONT... 35 NNE ROC 30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E
BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...APPALACHIAN MTNS...SE US AND NE US....

...TX PANHANDLE/NW TX/SE OK/ERN CO...

MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS
ACROSS W TX AND THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS NOW NORTH OF SAN
ANGELO. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NW TX AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG SFC HEATING TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000
J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF W TX...A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NE NM AND
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ETA/ETAKF/GFS MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
RESULTING IN ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT
INITIATE. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT AMA
AND MAF SHOW BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SW AND W ABOVE
700 MB. THIS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MATURE...MOVING ESEWD INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW-ROLLING PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS CONGEAL AND MOVE SEWD. THE
FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WILL BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL
BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.


...NORTHEAST US...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SPEED MAX OF 60 KT CURRENTLY OVER WRN KY
AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET APPROACHES
AND THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S F AND AS TEMPS
WARM TODAY...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PA AND
NJ. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ABOUT 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE TEMP DEWPOINT
SPREAD...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS BY EVENING.


...GULF COAST STATES...

AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SE LA AND MS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LARGE-SCALE BOW HAS
WEAKENED BUT REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S F EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND AS THE MCS TRACKS
ALONG THE COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL RESULT IN A WET DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST
LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
LINE SHOULD MOVE SEWD OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.


...ERN COAST OF FL...

AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING
ACROSS ERN FL...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR ERN FL SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS COUPLED WITH VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING A BRIEF WINDOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER INLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.