[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021653
SWODY1
SPC AC 021650

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
GLS SAT JCT 55 W CVS RTN LIC GLD UMN POF 20 NW BWG 30 ESE LUK MFD 20
NW UCA 15 ESE BOS ...CONT... 10 E ORF TYS 35 N MSL 25 SE MEM 40 E
MLU 20 W 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
MOB 35 E MEI 35 NNE MEI CBM 25 N BHM 10 NNE MCN 30 E SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD
...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 45 SW ROW 10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25
ESE MLD 60 SSW COD 40 N RWL 45 N CYS 15 NNW SLN 25 ESE EMP 50 NNE
JLN 10 ESE TBN 40 NNW ALN 30 SSE MMO 20 SE GRR 30 NE MTC ...CONT...
25 SSW ART 20 S BTV 35 NW AUG 20 E BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...APPALACHIAN MTNS...AND NE US....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
COASTAL STATES AND FL...

...SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD OUT OF WY AND IN ZONE OF 850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
AND ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS OK/TX SHOW
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM...RESULTING IN MUCAPES NEAR 3000
J/KG. AS KS STORMS MOVE SEWD INTO OK STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SURFACE BASED AND DEVELOP INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS WITH WIND
DAMAGE BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.

ALSO...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN STREAM OF ACCAS FROM
SERN CO/NERN NM SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR DHT EWD TO END AND SGF...STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT. WIND PROFILES VEER FROM SELY
TO NWLY ALOFT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL. GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THESE NW FLOW PATTERNS...STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL AND
RACE SEWD OVERNIGHT INTO TX AS AN MCS WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN
THREAT.

STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NERN NM/SERN CO LATE TODAY AS
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AND INITIATES STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE 
LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE THE
MAIN THREAT. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THE MCS WILL BE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO CENTRAL
TX...AND POSSIBLY SERN TX/LA LATE TONIGHT.

...NORTHEAST US...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS AND
OHIO VALLEYS EWD INTO PA/MID ATLANTIC STATES. A SPEED MAX IS ALSO
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LIFT ACCENTUATED ACROSS
VA/PA LATER TODAY IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET. DESPITE THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS HAVE FORMED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT AND SHOULD DO SO AGAIN TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS ALOFT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS/LINES OF
CONVECTION. THE SHEAR PROFILES AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST THAT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...GULF COAST STATES...
AN MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/AVC LOCATED OVER MS. ALTHOUGH THE BOW
HAS WEAKENED...REINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN GA AND
THE FL PANHANDLE.

...ERN COAST OF FL...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INITIATING STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MORNING SOUNDING AT TAMPA WAS VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE
INSTABILITY AND COLLISION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AN SOME HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

..IMY.. 06/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.