[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020602
SWODY1
SPC AC 020558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
BPT 45 SE JCT 45 SW JCT 45 WSW SJT 35 NNW MAF 50 NNE ROW 30 WSW RTN
15 NW PUB 25 S LIC 30 E LBL 40 SW TUL 40 NNW HOT 15 WSW MEM 25 SW
BWG 15 SW LEX 50 E LUK 10 S MFD 15 ENE JHW 20 SSE GFL 25 ESE PSM
...CONT... 25 SE WAL 10 N LYH 25 WSW HSS 30 N GAD 45 WNW AUO 20 WNW
ABY AYS 25 NE SSI ...CONT... 15 ESE DAB 35 S CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MRF 45 SW ROW
10 NNE SAF 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE MLD 55 E JAC 45 SE WRL 50 SSE
DGW 20 SE ICT 20 WNW SGF 35 WNW STL 10 E DTW ...CONT... 40 WNW SYR
30 NW RUT 25 NNE AUG 20 E BHB ...CONT... 40 S CRP LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...AND FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST/NRN FL INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH FROM SERN CANADA TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT ENEWD WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO REBOUND OVER THE WRN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.  AT THE SURFACE...SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT HAVE MOVED SEWD THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STALL VCNTY NRN
FL...SRN STATES AND N TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
SWING SEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...THE OH/TN VLYS AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THESE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY FOCUS TSTM THREATS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE UPPER OH VLY...
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. 
THOUGH GRADUALLY WARMING WITH TIME...H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 15C
ATOP 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS...LIKELY FAVORING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...TSTM
CLUSTERS WILL TEND TO BOW GIVING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ISOLD
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN AOA 40 KTS.

...TN VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A WEAK WAVE TOPPING WRN STATES RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE TN VLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
MID MS VLY ALONG THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT.  GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING...TSTMS COULD INITIATE VCNTY
THIS BOUNDARY/LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 60 KTS MAY
AUGMENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM TN INTO PARTS OF ERN KY.

...NRN FL TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
WELL-DEFINED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE PERIOD UPSTREAM ACROSS AR AND NRN MS. 
STORMS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND COULD INTENSIFY
ALONG THE ERN EDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON-DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN PARTS OF
MS/AL AND NRN FL.  OVERALL EVOLUTION IS NOT CLEAR AT ALL...BUT IF
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CAN HEAT...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT. 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  SURFACE
DIVERGENCE BEGINS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM LA WWD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SRN HIGH PLAINS HEATING...SO CONVECTIVE THREAT
MAY DECREASE WITH TIME OVER THESE AREA.  

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO NCNTRL TX...
SEVERE THREATS WILL LIKELY SHIFT FARTHER NW ON WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE 
HIGH WILL BE NOSING DOWN INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL TURN
SURFACE FLOW UPSLOPE...ADVECTING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH 8-8.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  

DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX AND COULD BE IMPETUS FOR
TSTM INITIATION BY MID-AFTERNOON.  OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP IN
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS. 
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES
TO 3500-4500 J/KG DURING THE EVENING.  GIVEN 45-50 KTS OF VERTICAL
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO
NWRN/NCNTRL TX.  WHILE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK...IT SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
EXIST.

AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS AND UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES...TSTM
PROPAGATION SHOULD FAVOR A SWD MOVEMENT.  THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY
FOR A WIND DAMAGING MCS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK/NWRN/NCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT... BUT
PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.  

...ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL...
WEST COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD COLLIDE WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN FL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TUESDAY AND THESE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY AUGMENT STRONG UPDRAFTS. 
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.