[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020103
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
BPT CLL 30 WSW AUS 20 SW JCT 25 SSE ABI 10 WNW LTS 35 NW FSM 25 SSE
BMG 35 W CMH 50 WNW MRB 35 SSE PSK 20 ENE UOX 35 WSW JAN 25 WSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW PSX 20 ESE COT
15 ESE DRT 25 SSE BGS 25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF 20 SSE MTJ 35 WNW
EGE 25 W CYS 30 WNW GLD 40 S HLC 20 ENE HUT 55 NNE JLN 20 SSE VIH 35
NW SLO 45 ENE LAF 10 NNW TOL 45 SSE MTC ...CONT... 10 E ECG 20 SE
GSO 35 E RMG 40 NW MCN 45 SSW AGS 30 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 20 SW BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
OH/TN VLYS...

...SRN PLAINS INTO OH/TN VLYS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING ESEWD ACROSS
SRN OK AND NCNTRL TX ATTM.  ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN
AIDING NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VLY SWD INTO CNTRL TX.  FORT WORTH 00Z SOUNDING EXHIBITED
A SMALL CAP...BUT GIVEN EFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION...PARCELS
WILL BE FORCED TO CONVECT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  MLCAPE OF
4000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER
REMAINS WEAK...BUT GIVEN A MOTION ALONG BOUNDARY...A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO COULD OCCUR.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS
AND MOVE ESEWD...IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INTO
NERN/ECNTRL TX AND ADJACENT LA AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON HOW FAR SEWD THE STORMS WILL REACH...WITH CONDITIONAL
SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO THE SWRN COAST OF LA. CONTINUED RISKS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE TSTMS.

MEANWHILE...IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CORN BELT IS 
BEGINNING TO EJECT ESEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS.  INCREASING LOW-
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE
OH/TN VLYS SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...AMPLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS.

..RACY.. 06/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.