[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012034
SWODY1
SPC AC 012031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
JAX 25 WNW CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE MOB 45 NNW CEW TOI 20 S CSG 20 ESE
SAV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
EFK 25 SSW LEB 15 ENE BAF 15 NE ISP ...CONT... 25 S WAL PSK UOX GWO
30 WSW HUM ...CONT... 25 SE BPT 35 ESE CLL CLL 25 ESE AUS 25 E SAT
SAT 50 SSW JCT 45 SW JCT SJT LTS 35 N OKC TUL BLV 40 N DNV 30 NNW
HLG DUJ 25 ENE ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE P07 35 SSE BGS
25 WNW CDS DHT 60 NNE SAF DRO U28 SLC TWF 60 NNE BOI 50 NW 27U BZN
WRL 35 SSW BFF 30 SSW GLD DDC P28 JLN VIH 35 WNW STL 20 SSW UIN 25
WSW OTM 40 SW ALO LSE CWA 30 NNW APN ...CONT... 40 NNW BML 10 SE BOS
...CONT... 10 E ECG 10 S DAN 20 NNE AVL AND 40 NW CHS 30 E CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN/MID ATL
STATES...THE OH VLY...AND THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN GULF COASTAL 
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND MAINTAIN
LARGE AREA WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...NERN/MID ATL STATES...
SURFACE HEATING AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LATER AND 30-40 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS WITH MAINLY WIND DAMAGE.
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND STABILIZATION FROM STORM OUTFLOWS.
  
...OH VLY...
ONE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KY/OH AND
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
NEAR 50 KT HAS HELPED TO ORGANIZE STORMS AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
  
...CNTRL AND NRN TX/OK EWD INTO AR...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO DEVELOP FROM JCT NWD TO EAST
OF ABI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE. WITH MLCAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SHORTLY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE HIGH LCLS AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
  
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. STORMS SHOULD THEM MOVE ESEWD THROUGH NERN
TX/SERN OK/SRN AR AND NRN LA WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.
 
OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
OK INTO NRN AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
  
...SERN GULF CST...
OLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
BOW-PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTERS AS MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS REGION.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING /ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY RICH GULF INFLOW/ WILL ENHANCE PRODUCTION OF DAMAGING
SURFACE WINDS.

..IMY.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.