[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010551
SWODY1
SPC AC 010548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
GLS 45 NNE VCT 55 SSE AUS 30 SE SAT 35 SE HDO 10 W HDO 50 W TPL 20 E
SEP 40 SW SPS 30 ESE LTS 30 NE ADM 20 NNW PGO 40 SSW HRO 10 NNW POF
40 E BMG 45 N DAY 45 NNW MFD 15 WNW YNG 25 NNE PIT 10 SE MGW 30 SSW
CRW 45 NNE CSV 45 NE CBM 30 NNE JAN 15 ENE MCB 15 SSE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DOV 30 SSW PSK
60 NW AND 20 NE AHN 15 NNW AGS CRE ...CONT... 45 N BML 25 NE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DRT 55 S JCT
55 WSW SPS 10 WSW CSM 10 SSW GAG 35 W EHA 40 NE ALS 30 ESE MTJ 45
NNE GJT 40 SW LND 45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 40 S LMT 50 WNW MHS 45 NNW MFR
20 ESE DLS 30 ENE LWS 50 SW BIL 35 W GCC 30 W BFF 20 WSW AKO 25 SSW
CNK 35 SW OJC 45 WNW TBN 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 10 SSW CID 50 SSW FOD
20 SSE STC 10 N MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX/WRN GULF COAST
NEWD TO THE OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON
TUESDAY.  THIS WILL DISLODGE THE WRN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.  THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT
SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREA WHILE
REDEVELOPING NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO
CNTRL/ERN TX.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
UPPER TROUGH... WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

...NCNTRL/CNTRL/ERN TX...
ONGOING TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN TX WILL FORCE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SWD INTO SERN TX EARLY ON TUESDAY.  THE BOUNDARIES WILL
WEAKEN AND LOW-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD AGAIN ADVECT NWWD ALONG/
EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN...AND AS THIS LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS.  INITIATION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ALONG OLD BOUNDARIES AND THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF
NCNTRL/CNTRL TX AS THE CAP IS BREACHED.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR.

INCREASING NWLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY CARRY A
DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING MCS OR TWO AS FAR SE AS THE UPPER TX COAST
OR SWRN LA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VLY...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE PROBLEMATIC FARTHER NORTH.  TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP NWD WITH TIME TUESDAY EVENING WITHIN ENHANCED WARM/
MOIST ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN OK.  ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE SEWD INTO OK-AR-TN-KY.  TSTMS
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW... BRINGING THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

...MID-UPPER OH VLY...
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
ALONG A COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
REGIME...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW TSTMS.  THE STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE DIURNAL AND DIMINISH DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING.

..RACY/BANACOS.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.