[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011304
SWODY1
SPC AC 011300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
PSX 35 S AUS 40 SSE BWD 50 NE ABI 20 ESE LTS 30 NW OKC 15 E UMN 10
SSE HUF 40 NNW CMH 20 SSW CLE 25 NE CLE 65 WNW ERI ...CONT... 20 NNE
PBG 10 NW PSF 20 SSE POU 15 W NEL 15 W DCA 20 ENE 5I3 MEM 55 NNW GWO
20 SW GWO 45 NE JAN SEM 40 SSW MCN 20 SSE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 35 S CDS 50 WNW
CSM 40 W GAG 35 NNE ALS 20 S GUC 25 WNW GUC 45 E VEL 40 SE BPI BPI
45 WNW SUN 25 S BNO 35 ENE MHS 35 WNW MHS 45 E CEC 45 NNW MFR 20 ESE
DLS 15 WNW ALW 30 ENE LWS SHR 25 SSW GCC 40 NW AKO 25 ESE AKO SLN 40
S SZL 25 WSW JEF 30 S UIN 10 ENE BRL 20 WSW CID 35 SSE FOD 30 NW FOD
30 W MKT 35 E STC 30 E IWD 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 45 NNE BML 25 NE
PSM ...CONT... 30 E SBY 20 S PSK 10 E AVL 25 ESE AND 30 W CAE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES....

...E TX/SE OK...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX AND
AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 90S F...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD AGAIN
DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 3500 TO 4500 J/KG. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...MAINTAINING 40 KT MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS STORMS ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY. CAPPING SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE
STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS NE TX AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY
THIS EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID TRANSPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT WITH 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE RED RIVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS PRESENT ACROSS NE NM AND THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER. MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 50 KT ACROSS SE OK
AND THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB) AT 06Z ACROSS SE OK. GFS AND ETA
BOTH AGREE DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. IF AN MCS CAN
GENERATE...IT SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS
SRN AR INTO LA LATE TONIGHT.


...NEW ENGLAND STATES...

A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
A MID-LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ALREADY IN PLACE...SFC HEATING
SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN EARLY STORM INITIATION WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING
AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ETA/GFS AND RUC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (500 MB TEMPS OF -15
TO -17C) SHOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.


...GULF COAST...

AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL THIS MORNING
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL
MS AND CNTRL AL. MLCAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 500
TO 1000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS COUPLED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ENTERING
WRN MS IS SHOWING SOME BOWING AND IF A COLD POOL CAN GENERATE
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN MS AND
SRN AL AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD.

..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 06/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.